Brexit Deal Fails Again

[gimmepie]

Theresa May's latest version of Brexit got voted down again. Thoughts?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01...-england-britain-stakes-never-higher/10719686

 

[Yue Han]

So later today what is going to happen, now the leader of the opposition has tabled a no confidence vote in the government, there will be a vote on whether the Conservative Party is still fit to lead.

They are likely to win this as even the most rebellious Tory MPs like Anna Soubry (strongly wishes to remain in the EU and voted against Theresa in the Conservative Party confidence vote) will not vote against her own government on whether or not they should stay in power and the DUP (the party propping up the Tory's as they lost their majority when Theresa lost the majority with her backfired snap election) will still vote to keep the Conservatives in power as they're enjoying a cushy deal right now from it, even though they loathed Theresa's deal. DUP MPs have publicly stated they'll be voting with the government anyway.

Brussels has made quite clear that there will be no more negotiations.

So it's quite catastrophic mess. Not that it wasn't to begin with, but now there's not really any much more room to skirt around that fact anymore.

There's been talk that 'Plan B' could be to have another go at the deal. Apparently she's allowed to postpone or try again until she gets the result she wants but putting the question back to the people is undemocratic. Sure Treeza luv, whatever you say.

I'm pretty sure, with the postponing of the vote that should have originally taken place in December anyway, that her plan was a stall tactic to get it nearer to the time of 29th March when we automatically leave, to force everyone to accept it's her botched deal or no deal at all. As originally they would have had 21 working days to come up with a Plan B, and I would have put money on them taking every single last day before bringing something to the table to stall it out. Thankfully they're being forced to come back within 4 working days with a Plan B.

The leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, isn't much help in regards to helping move things along as he's a known Eurosceptic and would like to cut ties with the EU I'm sure. He doesn't have the full support of his party as there are a lot of people not happy that he is the current leader and with the Labour party being in a mess themselves it's let the Conservatives been able to get away with acting as shambolically as they have done over this whole thing. BUT as much as I can criticise Jeremy for, I do think ultimately he is a decent human being and might just maybe finally back remain after his vote of no confidence fails. I am hoping he's playing a tactical game of waiting before he can well and truly say "well we have exhausted every other option possible so now is the time to extend/revoke Article 50".

At this point time is really running out so something needs to be done or we're crashing out of the EU with no deal. There's no time to arrange anything such as a general election or a 2nd referendum without extending Article 50.

 

[Hands]

So later today what is going to happen, now the leader of the opposition has tabled a no confidence vote in the government, there will be a vote on whether the Conservative Party is still fit to lead.

They are likely to win this as even the most rebellious Tory MPs like Anna Soubry (strongly wishes to remain in the EU and voted against Theresa in the Conservative Party confidence vote) will not vote against her own government on whether or not they should stay in power and the DUP (the party propping up the Tory's as they lost their majority when Theresa lost the majority with her backfired snap election) will still vote to keep the Conservatives in power as they're enjoying a cushy deal right now from it, even though they loathed Theresa's deal. DUP MPs have publicly stated they'll be voting with the government anyway.

Brussels has made quite clear that there will be no more negotiations.

So it's quite catastrophic mess. Not that it wasn't to begin with, but now there's not really any much more room to skirt around that fact anymore.

There's been talk that 'Plan B' could be to have another go at the deal. Apparently she's allowed to postpone or try again until she gets the result she wants but putting the question back to the people is undemocratic. Sure Treeza luv, whatever you say.

I'm pretty sure, with the postponing of the vote that should have originally taken place in December anyway, that her plan was a stall tactic to get it nearer to the time of 29th March when we automatically leave, to force everyone to accept it's her botched deal or no deal at all. As originally they would have had 21 working days to come up with a Plan B, and I would have put money on them taking every single last day before bringing something to the table to stall it out. Thankfully they're being forced to come back within 4 working days with a Plan B.

The leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, isn't much help in regards to helping move things along as he's a known Eurosceptic and would like to cut ties with the EU I'm sure. He doesn't have the full support of his party as there are a lot of people not happy that he is the current leader and with the Labour party being in a mess themselves it's let the Conservatives been able to get away with acting as shambolically as they have done over this whole thing. BUT as much as I can criticise Jeremy for, I do think ultimately he is a decent human being and might just maybe finally back remain after his vote of no confidence fails. I am hoping he's playing a tactical game of waiting before he can well and truly say "well we have exhausted every other option possible so now is the time to extend/revoke Article 50".

At this point time is really running out so something needs to be done or we're crashing out of the EU with no deal. There's no time to arrange anything such as a general election or a 2nd referendum without extending Article 50.

Jeremy is extremely popular with labour's voter base and that's what matters in the end. If it does, by some good luck, go to a general election, he will be bringing it home this time.

 

[Yue Han]

Jeremy is extremely popular with labour's voter base and that's what matters in the end. If it does, by some good luck, go to a general election, he will be bringing it home this time.

Are you from the United Kingdom? Jeremy is an extremely divisive figure. There is a lot of hate for him from within his own party's MP's and that's part of the reason as to why the Conservative's have been able to get away with as much as they have because Labour has been unable to unite properly to form decently against them.

There is a 'cult of Corbyn' as those that are fans of him think the sun shines out of his arse and he is a faultless man of the people. But there are just as many would-be Labour voters that would prefer someone more centrist than leftie Jezza and will even vote Conservative over him.

I would have him as the PM over Treeza any day but I'd still see the outcome as the same as the last election. No party with enough MPs to form a majority but with the Conservatives still getting the most seats. He's a Eurosceptic anyway and would also end freedom of movement (the reason why Europe won't budge on anything else because we're unwilling to accept that freedom) so unless he's prepared to change his stance on that an election really isn't what will bring about change to this mess.

 

[Yue Han]

So as expected the 'Tory rebels' that are staunchly opposed to May's deal, and also voted no confidence against her last month, still are not willing to put the country first and vote down her embarrassing and totalitarianistic rule for the sake of staying in power at all costs.

Then the May-bot herself gave the same tired speech she does every time about "being committed to finding a way forward" after something like this happens.

More and more sand falls through the hourglass every passing day and we're still no closer to any form of certainty that 'no deal Brexit' isn't going to be the case.

Absolutely shambolic situation all around. Article 50 must be extended. Yes the metaphorical pitchforks will come out, being wielded by a fair few less than savoury individuals; there may well even be riots with some not so metaphorical pitchforks. But when the alternative is the economy, as well as the livelihood of many citizens plummeting it's a step that needs to be taken.

 

[Hands]

Are you from the United Kingdom? Jeremy is an extremely divisive figure. There is a lot of hate for him from within his own party's MP's and that's part of the reason as to why the Conservative's have been able to get away with as much as they have because Labour has been unable to unite properly to form decently against them.

There is a 'cult of Corbyn' as those that are fans of him think the sun shines out of his arse and he is a faultless man of the people. But there are just as many would-be Labour voters that would prefer someone more centrist than leftie Jezza and will even vote Conservative over him.

I would have him as the PM over Treeza any day but I'd still see the outcome as the same as the last election. No party with enough MPs to form a majority but with the Conservatives still getting the most seats. He's a Eurosceptic anyway and would also end freedom of movement (the reason why Europe won't budge on anything else because we're unwilling to accept that freedom) so unless he's prepared to change his stance on that an election really isn't what will bring about change to this mess.

Corbyn increased his vote share during the leadership challenge against him. He has gone from strength to strength with the party membership.

 

[Yue Han]

Corbyn increased his vote share during the leadership challenge against him. He has gone from strength to strength with the party membership.

He is very popular among those that view him favourably which is a sizeable amount of people. He is however also despised by many centrists who usually vote Labour but would vote Tory/UKIP over vegetarian anti-nuclear Jezza. A Labour party vote he will win fine but a general election... When Theresa May refuses to debate other party leaders, delivers one of the most unpopular manifesto's in recent memory (so much so that it needed an immediate revision it was that unpopular), continues on and on with the cuts to many publicly funded institutions throughout her premiership and can still gain the most seats it shows that unfortunately the UK as a whole is significantly more right leaning than left which isn't good for poor old Jeremy.

 

[Hands]

He is very popular among those that view him favourably which is a sizeable amount of people. He is however also despised by many centrists who usually vote Labour but would vote Tory/UKIP over vegetarian anti-nuclear Jezza. A Labour party vote he will win fine but a general election... When Theresa May refuses to debate other party leaders, delivers one of the most unpopular manifesto's in recent memory (so much so that it needed an immediate revision it was that unpopular), continues on and on with the cuts to many publicly funded institutions throughout her premiership and can still gain the most seats it shows that unfortunately the UK as a whole is significantly more right leaning than left which isn't good for poor old Jeremy.

She didn't gain the most seats. Her party made a loss of 13 seats, the second worst showing of the day after the SNP (ironically, it was Scottish Tories winning 14 seats from the SNP that saved May losing nearly as many seats as Corbyn gained) Corbyn gained 30 seats and 9.6% vote swing, also achieving the highest voter share that Labour had seen since 2001 (may had 42% to Corbyn's 40%, making it also the closest general election since the 70s) Furthermore, many seats won by the tories were only won by 100-1000 voters, hence the closeness between the two parties.

Considering no British politician has ever faced the organised media campaign that Corbyn has, it's remarkable that he made such massive gains during a snap election.

 

[Yue Han]

She didn't gain the most seats. Her party made a loss of 13 seats, the second worst showing of the day after the SNP (ironically, it was Scottish Tories winning 14 seats from the SNP that saved May losing nearly as many seats as Corbyn gained) Corbyn gained 30 seats and 9.6% vote swing, also achieving the highest voter share that Labour had seen since 2001 (may had 42% to Corbyn's 40%, making it also the closest general election since the 70s) Furthermore, many seats won by the tories were only won by 100-1000 voters, hence the closeness between the two parties.

Considering no British politician has ever faced the organised media campaign that Corbyn has, it's remarkable that he made such massive gains during a snap election.

Gain probably wasn't the word I should have used. To clarify I meant 'won' the most seats in the election itself. And I'm aware of the numbers.

He did very well as far as the voting share is concerned but as long as First-past-the-post remains our favoured system of voting during a GE, as well as the placement of the electoral divisions themselves, then the voting share itself doesn't really help him as much as it could otherwise. I'm very aware he has a strong voting base and has been doing excellently considering the media campaign against him.

But again he is not going to get the vote of the average centrist and will never win a majority with his current stances on sensitive topics like Trident and a united Ireland. Centrist Blairite voters will not back "far-left" Jeremy. This is the point I'm making.

I could see him gaining enough seats to oust the current government, but certainly not winning more seats than the Conservatives.

I'm not sure if you think I have something against Corbyn as I do not but let me be very clear again when I say he is a divisive figure among the UK as a whole, Labour Party members and regular Labour party voters alike. It's because of this divisiveness he will never win a majority.