I would argue some semantics on this one. We don't know if Wiz treats a blocked NA as a visit or not. It's highly possible that you're still visiting the player even if the action doesn't go through. I would agree that it certainly helps Gunner's case though.
And gimmepie, you're quite right that Ullion having a gun doesn't clear him; however, what mafia would out their gun the second they get it? It was quite literally the second post of the game.
I have done that and would do it again. It's a really easy way of appearing townsided and certainly not beyond Kyle's ability to pull off.
...wait... Abby was guaranteed to have a vest. Question is, when was she de-vested? I'll look into that one through the re-read. Moving on.
If I were Mordred (spoiler alert: I'm not), I'd have immediately made that switch the night following the reveal.
Wicked joined my on the drewwagon... interesting in hindsight. gimmepie rejects the drewwagon. Ullion hesitates to lynch drewbie.
Of course I rejected it, it was fucking stupid lol.
D3: No confirmation of Mordred's Night Action. Ullion's gun may have been fabbed.
Ullion outs as a citizen. Ullion also continues to assert that his gun is fake.
Common mafia tactic: Don't give out a fake gun and then claim you got one.
I'm a little confused by this post gimmepie made:
I don't know what he means when he refers to the whole Abby thing. The random vote on Johnny is interesting. Wicked also mentions gimmepie in his post:
Not really much to work with here, but it is something.
I was probably referencing my misread on her since I scumread her really hard in the early game. I "random voted" Johnny because I had a gut feeling he was scum but couldn't find any solid evidence. As it turns out, I was wrong again.
Gotta admit that it really sucks when a mafia player was agreeing with me. My best guess is that he thought that Johnny was a threat and wanted him gone whilst I was proving more useful to the mafia than anything at that point because I was consistently wrong with my reads
Ullion reaffirms the decision to have Nani fire her gun and rejects the drewwagon. gimmepie also rejects it.
Doesn't make him town - it means he didn't want the fool to win.
Once again, of course I rejected the drewwagon. It was really stupid.
Ullion and gimmepie both hop on the Killuawagon at about the same time with roughly the same logic. gimmepie parrots Ullion a bit.
I agreed with him, I didn't parrot.
Ullion calls for role reveal of Killua - a bit late for that, but better than gimmepie.
ngl I don't even remember this. I do remember switching to the Killwagon to prevent a drewbie lynch though.
D4: Here we have confirmation that Mordred fab vested the night kill target. At this point, it's highly likely that the mafia has stopped handing out fake guns.
Ullion concludes that mafia doesn't have a gun because they would've shot Bard. I think he forgot that guns have a 50/50 chance of a reveal or he's pretending to forget. gimmepie points that fact out. gimmepie also pushes at the people who went on the Killwagon. Ullion follows along, points out Johnny started it, and defends the Killwagon. gimmepie scumreads Johnny.
Likely.
Very likely (In reference to the bold part). Also aother common mafia move in fab games. Notice how I'm the one being pro-active in all this whilst Kyle occasionally comes in with statements that are really easy for the mafia to make. Meanwhile I'm just trying to make reads.
Also, Wicked defended gimmepie. Here's the quote:
It's a black mark on gimmepie's innocence right here.
Can't argue with that but it wouldn't be the first time a mafia defended a townie.
gimmepie scumreads Johnny, townreads Naku, and compiles a huge list of people who haven't contributed much - Wicked's on it but it's a long list and what mafia wouldn't lightly scumread an imminent mafia lynch target to defend themselves? Also scumreads Abby. Wicked also pursues Johnny.
It was an accurate list. Not my fault the game has been full of people not doing anything. Naku and Gunner
still aren't really doing anything. Are you sure I scumread Abby again? Jesus, how does she always look that suss? As for Wiicked going after Johnny, see my previous point.
And Wicked AGAIN defends gimmepie here.
Go figure the maf only starts causing me trouble once they're dead. Maybe he thought defending me would make him come over as innocent? At that point only Johnny was scumreading me - and with terrible logic behind the read - so I guess he figured it was a good move? Or he
really wanted Johnny gone. I dunno. If it were me in his shoes I'd have just let things play out.
gimmepie makes a slightly harder scumread on Wicked - interesting - and Ullion both points out the fabbing vests to keep townies unvested and quickly hops on the Wickedwagon.
I was right.
Also I pointed out the vesting thing long before Kyle did.
gimmepie gives another scumread on Desi as the Wickedwagon begins to build momentum.
Also of note: gimmepie successfully turned the Wickedwagon around.
I was scumreading both of them. Hard. I was also a bit hesitant on Alex though due to how wrong my previous scumreads had been with him being among the earlier reads.
Don't try and make that out to be a situation it wasn't - I didn't defend either of them.
D5: Johnny received a fake vest.
Hold it! Ewery1 got a gun today... but he wouldn't have gotten a message if the guns were switched out - Johnny targeted him that night. And Ewery1 got his first gun... I can't find his first gun claim, but it wasn't on Day Three, during the unconfirmed Mordred action. Odds are both of his guns were clean... what irony. However, it is possible that Mordred fabbed him on N2.
Or alternatively, Mordred gunned Ewery a second time in a row believing that he'd think it was a real gun from Johnny (with Johnny too dead to confirm anything) and shoot.
gimmepie points out a boatload of facts and asks for people to talk.
WOW
Almost like I'm townsided or something! ...oh wait, I am.
Don't you think itd be just a bit weird for me as a mafia to be drawing all that attention to myself and also being the only one pushing people to actually look for mafia. Meanwhile Kyle posted the occasional bit of info (that would have been easy to know as maf) and Gunner was skating through doing literally fuck all.
Ullion scumreads and votes for Wicked. gimmepie hops aboard the ETwagon. Wicked gets killed by Jade.
Go figure, I'd actually been right about Wiicked.
I guess 1/5 reads isn't so bad?
D6: Ewery1 got a vest. Perhaps fake? Perhaps real?
I'd guess fake.
gimmepie outs his ring, and also says this:
Interesting thought there gimmepie, just what I was thinking. It's an entirely logical move, since Mars couldn't possibly have a vest. Up to this point, Mordred fabbed everyone he killed to check for vests, but not that night. Gee, I wonder how you came to that conclusion so quickly?
Because I have a brain, dear Bard. If you actually stop and do some critical thinking, it's not that hard to work that out. According to you, you came to the same conclusion.
gimmepie scumreads gunner. Ullion scumreads ET and defends gunner. gimmepie switches based on Ullion's logic.
The question here is "did I follow the maf or follow the town off the maf?"
D7: Ewery1 dies. If D6 Vest was real, Mordred had to visit him on N6 in addition to the kill, clearing Ullion.
I'm pretty sure it wasn't but neither of us really have any evidence on that one. It wouldn't have been a bad move to have fabbed Ewery in an attempt to get him to shoot that gun.
Ullion scumreads jd and NightKrow.
gimmepie votes for NightKrow.
jd's role was painfully obvious and tbh it seemed highly likely Krow was the Mysterious Woman if not Mordred going by her behaviour. She was hardly saying anything but obviously watching the game.
And that brings us to today.
Ah yes, the day that we lynch the most helpful town player based on coincidences and the shaky logic of a raving mad dragon who has barely even been a part of the game. Sounds like a good idea guys!
Here is my conclusion:
Ullion's gun may yet be unfabbed, since there are only two potential points for that to happen. However, I cannot prove that with certainty. What is most damning here is 1: Wicked's defense of gimmepie, 2: Ullion scumreading Wicked and 3: gimmepie getting Desi lynched instead of Wicked.
After analyzing literally every post in the game, I conclude that gimmepie's behavior and the synergy between gimmepie and Wicked, in addition to cross-referencing phase post information and Gawain's reveal, make him the most probable Mordred.
[Kill] gimmepie
This is my final answer. What say you all?
and sorry for the EXTREMELY long post, but it's the last day and we're at MYLO, no holding back
I already responded to all the points in your conclusion in this post, not repeating myself again.
As for what I say. I say honestly, if JD does side with you like he claims it doesn't really matter that I'm going to get lynched. Of course, if you lynch me and he decides to stab you in the back you're screwed.
As for the actual mafia. I'm still torn between Kyle and Gunner. Kyle makes way more sense looking back through all that, but Gunner's eagerness to lynch me + lack of any actual contribution the whole game makes me weary of changing my vote.
I'd like to hear from Kyle the most of everyone atm, but it's highly likely he'll vote me even if he is innocent.
