[Pokémon] ~>{*Shiny Hunters Club}<~

[G-Money]

5000 Fiery Path encounters

^^ Today marks my fifth year of being in the SHC! ^^

And this is post 23,000! Woot!

Nice adventure through the sandstorm, good that you had your trusty ratatta :). I have been traveling between fiery path and route 101, maybe i should go to the desert and find some trapinch too :). and thanks for the congrats.

*Chr Draco continues the hunt with a new party member*

My shiny news for today is, while traveling back to do some searching at route 101, i find something sparkling, a cute pick up shiny zigzagoon. nature timid. Now time to focus on the fiery path hunt, and this time it's not going to be the main entrance only ;)

Sweet, congrats on the Zig!! Pickup's a great Ability to have on a shiny hunting team; I hope you get a bunch of cool items in the Fiery Path! It'll be a good consolation prize for you, since you're going to lose the shiny race! :pink_tongue:

Man, I wish I had the motivation to play the games more. Haven't really been able to play so no shinies pretty much.
I do have both HeartGold and SoulSilver, though, and I went and saved in front of the starters to try and get one. When I did it last time it took me 3 days to end up with a Cyndaquil.
I likely won't get it any time soon, but when I do, I hope it'll be Chikorita! I mean, I won't say no to Totodile, but I prefer Meganium over Feraligatr. Personal preference. :p

Another hunt that I work on every so often is random encounters on Route 103 in OR. I don't do it very often, and when I do, it's only for about 15-30 minutes at a time, so needless to say I don't do it much, but I'm hoping eventually I can get something. I picked that route because I love both shiny Linoone and shiny Mightyena, and they are like both 40% encounter rate on that route (the other 20% is Wingull.) So it's pretty likely that what I finally encounter would be something I like. I also kinda like Wingull too, just not really a fan of Pelipper.

Welcome to the SHC, Ammako! Are those Pokemon in your sig your shinies? If so, that's a terrific list - Latias, Zorua, and Latios especially are super cool!!

Good luck on your Johto starters and Route 103! If your goals are to get shiny Linoone/Mightyena, you might want to consider Route 120 as well. It's up to your personal tastes, but Route 120 also has Linoone/Mightyena and instead of Wingull, it has (I think) Absol and Oddish as some alternative possibilities.

nice way to keep your shinies, i wonder what you use to lure them and what ingredients you use to prepare those gourmet dishes, you definitely have to give me the recipe. lol ;). *prepares kitchen for some pokemon sushi*

Gahhhhhhhhhhh, not you too!!!!!!! :pink_disbelief: You and Wailmer are eating all of the shinies!

Paulthagerous! CharmedGardy! Spoonette! Ammako! Help me!!! We've got find all of the shinies in Hoenn and get them safely into Pokeballs before Chr. Draco and Wailmer eat them all!!!! We've got to protect the shinies from these MONSTERS!!!

You guys have turned my mini-Hoenn tour into a quest for justice!! {XD}

 

[Poké Bean]

5000 Fiery Path encounters

^^ Today marks my fifth year of being in the SHC! ^^

And this is post 23,000! Woot!



Sweet, congrats on the Zig!! Pickup's a great Ability to have on a shiny hunting team; I hope you get a bunch of cool items in the Fiery Path! It'll be a good consolation prize for you, since you're going to lose the shiny race! :pink_tongue:



Welcome to the SHC, Ammako! Are those Pokemon in your sig your shinies? If so, that's a terrific list - Latias, Zorua, and Latios especially are super cool!!

Good luck on your Johto starters and Route 103! If your goals are to get shiny Linoone/Mightyena, you might want to consider Route 120 as well. It's up to your personal tastes, but Route 120 also has Linoone/Mightyena and instead of Wingull, it has (I think) Absol and Oddish as some alternative possibilities.



Gahhhhhhhhhhh, not you too!!!!!!! :pink_disbelief: You and Wailmer are eating all of the shinies!

Paulthagerous! CharmedGardy! Spoonette! Ammako! Help me!!! We've got find all of the shinies in Hoenn and get them safely into Pokeballs before Chr. Draco and Wailmer eat them all!!!! We've got to protect the shinies from these MONSTERS!!!

You guys have turned my mini-Hoenn tour into a quest for justice!! {XD}

Count me in, we must stop these barbarians!

My first acts for the Pokemon Protection League were to safeguard a shiny Sandshrew, Wailmer and Zigzagoon and just to be safe, an Alomomola from Kalos, who knows how far these monster's appetites will take them!

And hey, congrats on the 5 years! You must have a pretty impressive collection by now! And 23,000 posts in this thread is ridiculously amazing! ^^

 

[Kitrigar]

Happy 2016! It's time for a new Yearly Quest!!

The 2016 Yearly Quest: The Shinies are Teeming!!!!
​

It's 2016, and the shinies are teeming! They're also teaming, creating teams to band together!

Create as many of the following teams as possible!

• Six Grass-type shinies!
• Six Fire-type shinies!
• Six Water-type shinies!
• Six Electric-type shinies!
• Six Normal-type shinies!
• Six Fighting-type shinies!
• Six Ground-type shinies!
• Six Rock-type shinies!
• Six Ghost-type shinies!
• Six Poison-type shinies!
• Six Flying-type shinies!
• Six Bug-type shinies!
• Six Ice-type shinies!
• Six Psychic-type shinies!
• Six Dark-type shinies!
• Six Steel-type shinies!
• Six Dragon-type shinies!
• Six Fairy-type shinies!
• Six shinies from Gen I!
• Six shinies from Gen II!
• Six shinies from Gen III!
• Six shinies from Gen IV!
• Six shinies from Gen V!
• Six shinies from Gen VI!
• Six starters!
• Six legendaries!
• Six Pokemon whose names begin with the same letter!

The Yearly Quest lasts until 11:59 PM on December 31st, 2016. Chained and Friend Safaried Pokemon are not allowed, but they can be counted in a parallel "Chained/Friend Safaried Yearly Quest."

Each Pokemon can only count for one team, but you get to pick which team it counts for at the end of the year. Each team may only be completed once.

In addition, there is also a 2016 Challenge: Find Pokemon whose first letters spell out T-W-E-N-T-Y-S-I-X-T-E-E-N! You must find 13 Pokemon to complete this challenge. One Pokemon can only count for one letter (you get to pick which one), but its evolutions could count instead if you so choose. For example, shiny Cyndaquil could count for one of C, Q, or T. Unown count for their letter.

Completing the 2016 Challenge counts as three teams towards the Yearly Quest.

Instead of Monthly Quests, 2016 will feature Seasonal Quests. These will last for several months and allow you to create teams for the Yearly Quest that will not be available as choices during the other seasons of the year. Get the Seasonal Teams while they last!!

It's Winter, so we get to have The 2016 Winter Quest!!!!

The following teams are available:

• Six shinies whose names spell WEGOOD
• Six shinies whose names spell ILOVEU
• Six blue shinies
• Six white shinies
• The Kit Fisto Team!!!

In honor of the unambiguously coolest Clone Wars Jedi, The Kit Fisto Challenge is available for you to complete in shiny form!

To complete the amazingly-cool Kit Fisto team, you must find one of each of the following:

• A green shiny!
• A shiny who smiles!
• A shiny who can learn Dive!
• A shiny who can learn Calm Mind!
• A shiny with a base Special Attack over 120!
• A shiny who is undeniably cool! Submitting a Pokemon like Oddish or Sunkern for this portion of the Quest will result in immediate banishment from the club.

The 2016 Winter Quest will last until 11:59 PM on March 31, 2016.

Huge thanks to Paulthagerous for the Yearly and Seasonal Quest ideas!!

Good luck and have fun!

Spoiler:

1000 Snivy
400 Route 116 encounters

I got White 2 for Christmas!! I had done 555 Snivy SRs on White, and I'm so glad that I waited before continuing, haha! These go much faster!

We've successfully completed 2015, and we can now look back on the regions we created! My region has 10 Pokemon: Rotom, Misdreavus, Totodile, Shelmet, Sandshrew, Taillow, Yamask, Mantyke, another Taillow, and another Taillow! Thirty percent of all Pokemon encountered on my island would be Taillow, but it's pretty cool too because you have a 30% chance of encountering a Rotom, Misdreavus, or Yamask. My region is probably a haunted island, with 3 Ghosts, 2 Waters, a Ground, a Bug, and 3 Flying, haha.

Here's the picture of my latest shiny Taillow! I had actually forgotten about one, so this is my fourth overall, "lol!"

Spoiler:

Thanks! :)



Wooooo, huge congrats!! Way to go getting a 1/8192!!

And Kasumi's an awesome nickname!



Congrats on all those shinies!

*channels shiny vibes and sends throughout the SHC*
*hopes no one notices some shiny vibes are missing*
>_>



Woah, that's so awesome!! Massive congrats!! Getting a shiny in 29 eggs isn't too bad, haha! :pink_laugh:



Welcome to the Shiny Hunters Club, Toastededibles! You're off to a great start with those two totally awesome shinies you've bred! Have you decided which one you're going to go for next?

Absolutely, feel free to ask any questions you have! I've bred a few Pokemon with 6 flawless IVs, so let me know if you need help with any part of the process!

My first shiny was a Slugma! The day was February 26th, 2006, and a 12-year-old G-Money was trudging through Emerald, trying desperately to make it through the endless labyrinth of ash and safely reach Fallarbor Town. Suddenly, a large blob of soot became sentient and attacked me from out of the ashes!! But wait, that wasn't soot...it was a gray Slugma!!!! Why!?? What is that!?? I figured I'd catch it and find out later. I searched online and discovered what shinies were, and that brought me to this thread, where I read amazing tales of great legends who actually actively searched for these mythical creatures. Thus began my shiny journey...

I started by checking all of my boxes in other games to see if I had caught one without realizing it. Sure enough, in Ruby, there was a blue Electrode! I don't remember finding it at all, but it must've been my first shiny way back in like 2003, haha.

I was super excited to find something so rare, and I talked about it for months, haha! I was so happy, and I'm still excited about that shiny Slugma!! :)

Of course I still have them! I've kept all of my shinies. They're mostly on the games I caught them on, except for if I was SRing the starters or needed to start over a 3rd gen game.



That's an awesome first shiny to get! And your challenge sounds super fun - let us know about your progress as it's going on! I'm sure you'll get a ton of cool new shinies!

Agh, yes! Something to do!~ I've been bored just running around Pokemon for shinies.
I NEED OBJECTIVES. This will definitely motivate me to hunt for more shinies!

While I haven't posted here in a while, I have been breeding and such for shinies!
So far, I've got..

• Shiny Cherubi (b/c they're cute as heck!)
• x2 Shiny Eevees
• Shiny Psyduck (by accident while running in the grass when I was hatching!)
• Shiny Luvdisc

I'll post some pictures later if I'm not lazy! Haha.

 

[LilyGardy]

A Wild Shiny Haxorus Appeared!

White 2 - Paige

In case anyone doesn't know already the Shiny Haxorus can be found in the Nature Preserve for seeing everything in the New Unova Pokedex which I did.

The Shiny Haxorus was caught in the Nature Preserve. She is Female, Level 60 with a Lonely Nature and the Rivalry Ability. I cannot think of a nickname yet.

I really like the Shiny Colour Scheme here the Black and Red work really well on what is an unquestionably cool Shiny.

I have EV Trained her a little and she has already helped win the Kanto Leaders Tournament soloing the battle with Erika in the Final. :)

I also helped save a Male Poliwhirl in Kalos.

Next Hunt - White 2 Treehollow Shiny Dratini

 

[Paulthagerous]

5000 Fiery Path encounters

^^ Today marks my fifth year of being in the SHC! ^^

And this is post 23,000! Woot!


Paulthagerous! CharmedGardy! Spoonette! Ammako! Help me!!! We've got find all of the shinies in Hoenn and get them safely into Pokeballs before Chr. Draco and Wailmer eat them all!!!! We've got to protect the shinies from these MONSTERS!!!

You guys have turned my mini-Hoenn tour into a quest for justice!! {XD}

Congrats on the 5 years and 23,000 posts!

I am also keen to join the Pokemon Protection League! Haven't had much time lately, but snagged a shiny Spheal! Pretty happy, even though its a 60% chance I assumed I would find 1234755 Zubats first lol :)

Thankfully my luck has recovered after that first search...

Spoiler:

2016 Shinies:

1429 Hordes – AS - Spinda
0139 Hordes – AS - Skarmory
0130 Hordes – AS – Electrike
0469 Hordes – AS – Meditite
0019 Hordes – OR – Shuppet
0111 Hordes – OR - Spheal

 

[Iceshadow3317]

Hey guys! Took me a while to find this again. I have some good news, after more than a year try on shinies. I finally got a new one.

Shiny Zigzagoon! I don't have a picture of it, but I got it on the Route 102 on Jan. 15th in a hoard battle. I was trying to get a male shiny ralts for a Gallade. It is my first ever shiny in the Hoenn Region, as I never got one in RSE.

Anyway, I have decided I am going to continue my Ash quest. This may eventually turn into a main cast quest. I got to organize my storage on OR. I finally got pokemon bank again, so was able to transfer everything to OR.

As a reminder, my current Ash pokemon are the following:
Boldore, Hawlucha, Pikachu, Unfezant, Leavanny, Swellow, Charizard, Donphan, Glalie, and Pidgeot.

I have to catch or hatch all of these pokemon from now on. I accepted ones that I had in which were already shiny. I plan to keep all pokemon at the stage in which Ash has his in the anime. All pokemon he has officially ever caught or had for a long amount of time, Larvitar, will be included. This will not include legendaries.

Below is a list of pokemon that I need to catch for the challenge. Read at your own risk as some may spoil the anime not yet in English.

Spoiler:

Kanto:

Spoiler:

Pikachu
Charizard
Squirtle
Bulbisaur
Snorlax
Kingler
Muk
Tauros
Butterfree
Pidgeot
Primeape
Haunter
Lapras
Raticate
Beedrill

Johto:

Spoiler:

Heracross
Noctowl
Totodile
Bayleef
Quilava
Donphan
Aipom

Hoenn:

Spoiler:

Sceptile
Swellow
Torkoal
Glalie
Corphish

Sinnoh:

Spoiler:

Infernape
Torterra
Staraptor
Buizel
Gliscor
Gible

Unova:

Spoiler:

Snivy
Pignite
Oashawott
Krookodile
Boldore
Palpitoad
Leavanny
Scraggy
Unfezant

Kalos:

Spoiler:

Greninja
Talonflame
Hawlucha
Noibat
Goodra

 

[Chr. Draco]

Sweet, congrats on the Zig!! Pickup's a great Ability to have on a shiny hunting team; I hope you get a bunch of cool items in the Fiery Path! It'll be a good consolation prize for you, since you're going to lose the shiny race!

I've been getting good items lately, but still need to train it to a high level for high chances to pick rare candies.
Oh, btw this appeared : (look attachments) I don't know if i should count it or not.

Gahhhhhhhhhhh, not you too!!!!!!!

You and Wailmer are eating all of the shinies!

Paulthagerous! CharmedGardy! Spoonette! Ammako! Help me!!! We've got find all of the shinies in Hoenn and get them safely into Pokeballs before Chr. Draco and Wailmer eat them all!!!! We've got to protect the shinies from these MONSTERS!!!

You guys have turned my mini-Hoenn tour into a quest for justice!!

My plan was to get a good chef to cook some delicious dishes like the slowpoke tail, really famous in the jotho region, and also in the kalos region there are lots of dishes that sound really tasty (remember the restaurants le nah, le yeah, le wow and the sushi roller), oh and the pokemon I got is not edible. ;).
And congrats on your fifth year at SHC.

A Wild Shiny Haxorus Appeared!
I also helped save a Male Poliwhirl in Kalos.

Congrtas, haxorus is so cool, hope you were able to get a good nature and IV's for it. and congrats on poliwhirl.

Congrats on spheal Paulthagerous.

Congrats IciIce on zigzaggon.

Shiny news: got a shiny koffing at fiery path. Looks like my game decided to give me an interesting face while hunting in fiery path. Nature relaxed and holding a smoke ball. Really fits the name I gave him.

 

[G-Money]

7777 Fiery Path encounters

Spoiler:

Thanks for all the congrats on my 5 years, "lol." I hope we all have another great 5 years (and many more!!!) here at the SHC!! :happy:

I have a question about using the median to extrapolate distribution statistics from analogous Bernoulli random variables. I was thinking about something, but I'm not sure if it's right or not. Let me know if I'm totally wrong or if it looks like this works! There's specific distribution information in this thread right here, but I don't really understand how to work from that, "lol." I'm hoping that this approximation is valid.

So the median number of encounters in 1/8192 shiny hunting is 5678. That means that there's a 50% chance of getting a shiny by the 5678th encounter and a 50% chance that you won't have one by then. This is analogous to a coin flip, assuming away weights and edges so that there's exactly a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. We could say that getting a shiny within 5678 encounters is like flipping heads, and tails means 5678 encounters without a shiny.

If you flip a coin twice, there's a 50% chance of getting heads on the first flip and 50% chance of getting heads on the second flip, so there's a 75% chance of getting at least one heads after two flips, and there's only a 25% chance that you'll get two tails in a row; P(T,T) = P(T) x P(T) = (1/2) x (1/2) = (1/4). Can we extrapolate this to calculate shiny odds? Using the analogy, that means that there's a 75% chance of having found a shiny by encounter 5678 + 5678 = 11,356.

If this is right - and I'm not sure that it is - we can keep going to find the probability of finding at least one shiny within [any multiple of 5678] encounters. To keep going, 5678 + 5678 + 5678 = 17,034 would be analogous to P(T,T,T) for a coin flip, which is (1/2)^3 = 1/8. This represents the probability of failure on all three sets of 5678 encounters, so we'd be looking for (1 - P(T,T,T)), which is 7/8. That means there's an 87.5% chance of finding a shiny within 17,034 encounters.

If we can do this, the probability table would be the following:

Encounters | Probability of Having Found at Least One Shiny

5678 | 50%
11356 | 75%
17034 | 87.5%
22712 | 93.75%
28390 | 96.875%
34068 | 98.4375%

Again, this could be totally wrong, so let me know if you think this makes sense! :)

I don't know what the median is for 1/4096 hunts or how to calculate it, but if anyone knows, I'm sure we could try something similar to come up with the distribution statistics for GenVI encountering.

Count me in, we must stop these barbarians!

My first acts for the Pokemon Protection League were to safeguard a shiny Sandshrew, Wailmer and Zigzagoon and just to be safe, an Alomomola from Kalos, who knows how far these monster's appetites will take them!

Sweet, congrats on all those shinies! You're the PPL leader! {XD}

Agh, yes! Something to do!~ I've been bored just running around Pokemon for shinies.
I NEED OBJECTIVES. This will definitely motivate me to hunt for more shinies!

While I haven't posted here in a while, I have been breeding and such for shinies!
So far, I've got..

• Shiny Cherubi (b/c they're cute as heck!)
• x2 Shiny Eevees
• Shiny Psyduck (by accident while running in the grass when I was hatching!)
• Shiny Luvdisc

Welcome back, Kitrigar! I'm glad you're joining the Yearly Quest! Are you going to go for a particular team first?

And just to make sure, those were all caught in 2016, right? If so, that's an awesome way to start the year, haha. Any plans for evolving your two shiny Eevee?

A Wild Shiny Haxorus Appeared!

...

I also helped save a Male Poliwhirl in Kalos.

Sweet shinies, congrats! The first nickname that came to mind for Haxorus was Demolisher, "lol."

Congrats on ... 23,000 posts!

I am also keen to join the Pokemon Protection League! Haven't had much time lately, but snagged a shiny Spheal! Pretty happy, even though its a 60% chance I assumed I would find 1234755 Zubats first lol :)

We should all be proud of the 23,000 posts - what an amazing club achievement!! *high-fives all around*

Congrats on the Spheal! You've passed your arduous tribulation with that first hunt, and now your luck is back to...well, Paulthagerous-level luck, haha!! Way to go on another cool Hoenn shiny!

I'm the weakest link in the PPL...I've got to up my game!! *sprints crazily throughout Fiery Path, but gets foot stuck in a Grimer*

Hey guys! Took me a while to find this again. I have some good news, after more than a year try on shinies. I finally got a new one.

Shiny Zigzagoon! I don't have a picture of it, but I got it on the Route 102 on Jan. 15th in a hoard battle. I was trying to get a male shiny ralts for a Gallade. It is my first ever shiny in the Hoenn Region, as I never got one in RSE.

Anyway, I have decided I am going to continue my Ash quest.

Welcome back, IcyIce!! Congrats on the Zigzagoon and good luck on your Ash Quest - that's a really cool hunt idea!!

I'm glad you included Raticate on your list, "lol."

Oh, btw this appeared : (look attachments) I don't know if i should count it or not.



My plan was to get a good chef to cook some delicious dishes like the slowpoke tail, really famous in the jotho region, and also in the kalos region there are lots of dishes that sound really tasty (remember the restaurants le nah, le yeah, le wow and the sushi roller), oh and the pokemon I got is not edible. ;)

...

Shiny news: got a shiny koffing at fiery path. Looks like my game decided to give me an interesting face while hunting in fiery path. Nature relaxed and holding a smoke ball. Really fits the name I gave him.

Woo, congrats on winning the race!!! Koffing's an amazing shiny, and that definitely counts for our race! You've won the Fiery Path! Congrats, Chr.! "lol" at the nickname!! {XD}

I can't believe you've gotten the Kalos restaurants on your side, too! And it was you that caused that Slowpoke Tail epidemic in Johto!! :pink_disbelief:

After I get my Fiery Path shiny, want to race in the sandstorm?

 

[Iceshadow3317]

Yep lol. I think he only had Raticate for one episode, if that. Since I included Beedrill, I figured I should also include Raticate lol.

Trying to finish the pokedex right now on OR, still got to catch, hatch or evolve 10 or so to complete the dex. Not sure what the first shiny will be yet. Since I have yet to catch any of his Sinnoh Pokemon, I may go for one of them first.


And thanks for the Gratz's.



I do have a question, does anyone happen to know if Chain Fishing works in OR? I haven't really tried there and I cannot find any confirmation.

 

[Paulthagerous]

@IcyIce: Congrats on the Zigzagoon! And yes, chain fishing works in ORAS

I have a question about using the median to extrapolate distribution statistics from analogous Bernoulli random variables.

If we can do this, the probability table would be the following:

Encounters | Probability of Having Found at Least One Shiny

5678 | 50%
11356 | 75%
17034 | 87.5%
22712 | 93.75%
28390 | 96.875%
34068 | 98.4375%

Again, this could be totally wrong, so let me know if you think this makes sense! :)

I don't know what the median is for 1/4096 hunts or how to calculate it, but if anyone knows, I'm sure we could try something similar to come up with the distribution statistics for GenVI encountering.

Essentially, AFAIK, that is all correct. This is how I work it out (and you are getting the same result). The Scientific calculator on Windows does it all fine:

Chance of 1+ shiny in X encounters = 1- (chance of 0 shinies)
= 1 - (8191/8192)^X))

So for 28390 encounters:

1- ((8191/8192)^28390)
= 1- 0.031248....
= 0.96875
*100 ( to make a percentage) = 96.875%

I will think of a better way to calculate the odds for 1/4096, but through trial and error:

Probability of at least 1 shiny (1/4096 odds):

2839 = 50%
5678 = 75%

Which happens to be the same as 50% at the higher 1/8192 odds. No idea how that works, but it does lol :)



And added a Lotad to my list after 422 more hordes:

Spoiler:

2016 Shinies:

1429 Hordes – AS - Spinda
0139 Hordes – AS - Skarmory
0130 Hordes – AS – Electrike
0469 Hordes – AS – Meditite
0019 Hordes – OR – Shuppet
0111 Hordes – OR – Spheal
0422 Hordes – AS - Lotad

 

[Chr. Draco]

7777 Fiery Path encounters

Spoiler:

Thanks for all the congrats on my 5 years, "lol." I hope we all have another great 5 years (and many more!!!) here at the SHC!! :happy:

I have a question about using the median to extrapolate distribution statistics from analogous Bernoulli random variables. I was thinking about something, but I'm not sure if it's right or not. Let me know if I'm totally wrong or if it looks like this works! There's specific distribution information in this thread right here, but I don't really understand how to work from that, "lol." I'm hoping that this approximation is valid.

So the median number of encounters in 1/8192 shiny hunting is 5678. That means that there's a 50% chance of getting a shiny by the 5678th encounter and a 50% chance that you won't have one by then. This is analogous to a coin flip, assuming away weights and edges so that there's exactly a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. We could say that getting a shiny within 5678 encounters is like flipping heads, and tails means 5678 encounters without a shiny.

If you flip a coin twice, there's a 50% chance of getting heads on the first flip and 50% chance of getting heads on the second flip, so there's a 75% chance of getting at least one heads after two flips, and there's only a 25% chance that you'll get two tails in a row; P(T,T) = P(T) x P(T) = (1/2) x (1/2) = (1/4). Can we extrapolate this to calculate shiny odds? Using the analogy, that means that there's a 75% chance of having found a shiny by encounter 5678 + 5678 = 11,356.

If this is right - and I'm not sure that it is - we can keep going to find the probability of finding at least one shiny within [any multiple of 5678] encounters. To keep going, 5678 + 5678 + 5678 = 17,034 would be analogous to P(T,T,T) for a coin flip, which is (1/2)^3 = 1/8. This represents the probability of failure on all three sets of 5678 encounters, so we'd be looking for (1 - P(T,T,T)), which is 7/8. That means there's an 87.5% chance of finding a shiny within 17,034 encounters.

If we can do this, the probability table would be the following:

Encounters | Probability of Having Found at Least One Shiny

5678 | 50%
11356 | 75%
17034 | 87.5%
22712 | 93.75%
28390 | 96.875%
34068 | 98.4375%

Again, this could be totally wrong, so let me know if you think this makes sense! :)

I don't know what the median is for 1/4096 hunts or how to calculate it, but if anyone knows, I'm sure we could try something similar to come up with the distribution statistics for GenVI encountering.



Sweet, congrats on all those shinies! You're the PPL leader! {XD}



Welcome back, Kitrigar! I'm glad you're joining the Yearly Quest! Are you going to go for a particular team first?

And just to make sure, those were all caught in 2016, right? If so, that's an awesome way to start the year, haha. Any plans for evolving your two shiny Eevee?



Sweet shinies, congrats! The first nickname that came to mind for Haxorus was Demolisher, "lol."



We should all be proud of the 23,000 posts - what an amazing club achievement!! *high-fives all around*

Congrats on the Spheal! You've passed your arduous tribulation with that first hunt, and now your luck is back to...well, Paulthagerous-level luck, haha!! Way to go on another cool Hoenn shiny!

I'm the weakest link in the PPL...I've got to up my game!! *sprints crazily throughout Fiery Path, but gets foot stuck in a Grimer*



Welcome back, IcyIce!! Congrats on the Zigzagoon and good luck on your Ash Quest - that's a really cool hunt idea!!

I'm glad you included Raticate on your list, "lol."



Woo, congrats on winning the race!!! Koffing's an amazing shiny, and that definitely counts for our race! You've won the Fiery Path! Congrats, Chr.! "lol" at the nickname!! {XD}

I can't believe you've gotten the Kalos restaurants on your side, too! And it was you that caused that Slowpoke Tail epidemic in Johto!! :pink_disbelief:

After I get my Fiery Path shiny, want to race in the sandstorm?

those are interesting probabilities, i wonder if it works that way. Thanks for the congrats :). sure, whenever you are ready we can race at the desert,
Well, when I rescued the slowpoke from team rocket in jotho, they left lots of slowpoke tails, and the pokepolice decided to give them to me as a reward since they are a delicacy and it was impossible to reattach them to those poor slowpokes. :).




Congrats on lotad paulthagerous

 

[G-Money]

I'd like to announce the newest Co-Owner of the SHC...


Paulthagerous!!!!!!

Congratulations to Paulthagerous on this promotion! I figured that it was about time, seeing as:

• He's always been nice and helpful to all SHC members
• He's been a consistently active member of the club
• He helps answer member questions
• He helps answer owner questions ("lol")
• He understands 6th gen mechanics very well and can help SHC members with questions when the owner has no idea what he's talking about :pink_laugh:
• Despite joining 9 years after the Club started, he's already made it to the first page of the super-secret Shiny Hunters ranking list and is currently the #28 shiny hunter of all-time
• He participates in Club Quests
• He's literally given away Pokemon to SHC members to facilitate their shiny hunting
• He's made an exhaustive guide to the DexNav to help SHC members find more shinies
• He's advertised for us in other threads
• He gives suggestions to help out the Club and came up with the idea for the Yearly Quest
• He's awesome!

I hope those are enough reasons for you guys to believe that Paulthagerous deserves the promotion. :happy:

Spoiler:

9100 Fiery Path encounters

Essentially, AFAIK, that is all correct. This is how I work it out (and you are getting the same result). The Scientific calculator on Windows does it all fine:

Chance of 1+ shiny in X encounters = 1- (chance of 0 shinies)
= 1 - (8191/8192)^X))

So for 28390 encounters:

1- ((8191/8192)^28390)
= 1- 0.031248....
= 0.96875
*100 ( to make a percentage) = 96.875%

I will think of a better way to calculate the odds for 1/4096, but through trial and error:

Probability of at least 1 shiny (1/4096 odds):

2839 = 50%
5678 = 75%

Which happens to be the same as 50% at the higher 1/8192 odds. No idea how that works, but it does lol :)



And added a Lotad to my list after 422 more hordes:

Spoiler:

2016 Shinies:

1429 Hordes – AS - Spinda
0139 Hordes – AS - Skarmory
0130 Hordes – AS – Electrike
0469 Hordes – AS – Meditite
0019 Hordes – OR – Shuppet
0111 Hordes – OR – Spheal
0422 Hordes – AS - Lotad

Congrats on Lotad! I think you're the first one to complete a team - you have 6 GenIII shinies!

And thanks for the probability information; that's really helpful!! I never understood how to use the 8191/8192 formula, but the way you explained it makes a lot of sense. It's like when I did (1/2)^3 to represent three consecutive tails/sets of 5678 shinyless encounters. We can just take the probability of consecutive encounters on their own, which is 8191/8192 for each, and take the probability of successive iterations! And the probability of back-to-back shinyless encounters in GenVI would be (1 - (4095/4096)^2)(100%)!

It's cool that 5678 is the 75th percentile for GenVI, too. Going off of what you said, it looks like every other "milestone" (1 - (1/2)^n)(100%) for sixth gen odds is also a milestone for earlier gen odds. For example, 11356 is the 75th percentile for 1/8192, and it's the 93.75th percentile for 1/4096!

those are interesting probabilities, i wonder if it works that way. Thanks for the congrats :). sure, whenever you are ready we can race at the desert,
Well, when I rescued the slowpoke from team rocket in jotho, they left lots of slowpoke tails, and the pokepolice decided to give them to me as a reward since they are a delicacy and it was impossible to reattach them to those poor slowpokes. :).

Yeah right, you "rescued" them! They might've been better off with Team Rocket... :pink_tongue:

I'm glad that Koffing was your Fiery Path shiny! {XD}

Since my Hoenn hunts are more like a tour than a set hunt, I'd actually be fine moving around my hunts. I don't mind taking a break from Fiery Path, so let me know whenever you want to start on our Sandstorm race!

*turns away from Chr. Draco*
*turns on comm device*
Spoonette, take the PPL and go rescue some other shinies! I've got him distracted in the Sandstorm with some inedible Ground Pokemon!

 

[Paulthagerous]

@Chr Draco - Congrats on Koffing!

I'd like to announce the newest Co-Owner of the SHC...


Paulthagerous!!!!!!

Congratulations to Paulthagerous on this promotion!

Congrats on Lotad! I think you're the first one to complete a team - you have 6 GenIII shinies!

Thank you very much for the promotion :) I will do my best to contribute as much as I can :)

Hadn't clicked that I had a team, but as per the rules of the yearly I won't lock it in yet just in case I have better use for them later :)

And thanks for the probability information; that's really helpful!! I never understood how to use the 8191/8192 formula, but the way you explained it makes a lot of sense. It's like when I did (1/2)^3 to represent three consecutive tails/sets of 5678 shinyless encounters. We can just take the probability of consecutive encounters on their own, which is 8191/8192 for each, and take the probability of successive iterations! And the probability of back-to-back shinyless encounters in GenVI would be (1 - (4095/4096)^2)(100%)!

It's cool that 5678 is the 75th percentile for GenVI, too. Going off of what you said, it looks like every other "milestone" (1 - (1/2)^n)(100%) for sixth gen odds is also a milestone for earlier gen odds. For example, 11356 is the 75th percentile for 1/8192, and it's the 93.75th percentile for 1/4096!

Yup, you sound like you have it. I have found a website where you can enter the formula and for a given percentage or number of encounters, it will give the answer. Hopefully following this link will help, just have to remember it has to be 1-(all fails) for what we want, and of course ask away if any questions:

https://www.symbolab.com/solver/equation-calculator/%5Cleft(%5Cfrac%7B8191%7D%7B8192%7D%5Cright)%5E%7Bx%7D%3D0.5/?origin=button

 

[asphodel]

Ooh, super glad I ran into this thread!

It's been a while since I've shiny-hunted (like...since Halloween, actually, when I decided to go for a Halloween Gastly), those challenges look awesome. Think I'll go for a Grass team, starting with Cherubi.

 

[Paulthagerous]

Ooh, super glad I ran into this thread!

It's been a while since I've shiny-hunted (like...since Halloween, actually, when I decided to go for a Halloween Gastly), those challenges look awesome. Think I'll go for a Grass team, starting with Cherubi.

As my first official act as co-owner of this club:

Welcome to the Shiny Hunters Club!

Feel free to ask any questions, everyone here is super nice and helpful. And of course we love to hear about any shines you find :)

I am aiming for 1 more horde find, then I am changing to a different type of hunt for a little while. Will explain once I have fully decided on the targets :)

 

[asphodel]

As my first official act as co-owner of this club:

Welcome to the Shiny Hunters Club!

Feel free to ask any questions, everyone here is super nice and helpful. And of course we love to hear about any shines you find :)

I am aiming for 1 more horde find, then I am changing to a different type of hunt for a little while. Will explain once I have fully decided on the targets :)

Haha, I'm honored to be the recipient of your first official act! (Congrats, by the way!)

Thanks so much for the welcome, I'm super excited to see other peoples' shinies and show off my own!

 

[Kostas]

Hey all!
Can I join the club?
I got Alpha Saphire a few days ago so I don't have any shiny in Alpha saphire yet.
But i did had in Heartgold and in Diamond. Cyndaquil and Magikarp.
I will try to hunt a shiny taillow in the weekend.

 

[G-Money]

9800 Fiery Path encounters
4000 Jagged Pass encounters
800 Sandstorm encounters
16 Route 113 encounters

There isn't much grass along the Jagged Pass, so I brought along an Illuminate Lanturn to help me out. It's really useful! I picked Lanturn over Starmie since it knows Thunder Wave, which might help in my next shiny capture!

Since I had been planning to evacuate Emerald, pretty much all of my 200+ Pokemon in Emerald have random hold items. Lanturn's carrying TM28, "lol."

I have found a website where you can enter the formula and for a given percentage or number of encounters, it will give the answer. Hopefully following this link will help, just have to remember it has to be 1-(all fails) for what we want, and of course ask away if any questions:

https://www.symbolab.com/solver/equation-calculator/%5Cleft(%5Cfrac%7B8191%7D%7B8192%7D%5Cright)%5E%7Bx%7D%3D0.5/?origin=button

Sweet, thanks! Now we can get any percentile, haha!

Ooh, super glad I ran into this thread!

It's been a while since I've shiny-hunted (like...since Halloween, actually, when I decided to go for a Halloween Gastly), those challenges look awesome. Think I'll go for a Grass team, starting with Cherubi.

Welcome to the SHC, asphodel!

^ That's my first unofficial welcome in a long time, haha. Congrats on being Paulthagerous's first accepted member!

Hey all!
Can I join the club?
I got Alpha Saphire a few days ago so I don't have any shiny in Alpha saphire yet.
But i did had in Heartgold and in Diamond. Cyndaquil and Magikarp.
I will try to hunt a shiny taillow in the weekend.

Welcome to the SHC, Kwstaspaokara!! I'm really glad you joined!

Good luck on your Taillow hunt!

 

[asphodel]

Welcome to the SHC, asphodel!

^ That's my first unofficial welcome in a long time, haha. Congrats on being Paulthagerous's first accepted member!

Thanks for the welcome! :D

This time I actually have a new shiny to show off; meet the little 5-IV (-HP) Dream Ball Cherubi that hatched for me after 304 eggs!

 

[Iceshadow3317]

Trying to get a Gligar in a Hoard battle on Route 19, after about 300 to 500 hoard encounters, possibly more, I finally got a shiny. Unfortunately, it was a Weepinbell.

I almost didn't even see it either. If I hadn't been looking at the last second to she the stars, I would have ran from it. It was on the very edge of the line in the back and it hardly had any color difference.

And then it started to rain, so I could no longer use sweet scent. Guess it is time to take a break from Gligar and see if I can get a Tauros in a Hoard battle.


Edit: With 1 Horde Battle on Route 12, I got a 3rd Shiny Wingull.