My argument is Copeland is heavily influenced by the jobs created by Trident which Corbyn wants to scrap. Look at Stoke, which should have been a UKIP win but Labour fought them off. Labour has held the majority of seats in by-elections since 2015. A loss in Copeland is meaningless contextually, especially since we've been losing ground there rapidly since Blair's first term.
Sure.
Let's look at Gt Yarmouth though since you consistently ignore the seats I mention.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000717
Yarmouth is one of the most impovised areas in the UK, no one there has faith in Brandon Lewis, he faces calls daily on radio shows, local tv and local news to step down. Either UKIP or Labour will take Yarmouth in a landslide. He has done nothing for Yarmouth and the people there know it.
GY history:
1997- LAB Majority of 18%
2001- Lab Majority of 11%
2005- Lab Majority of 7%
2010- CON Majority of 10%
2015- Con Majority of 14%
Boy, if a 32-point swing is not "quickly losing ground there since Blair's first term", I don't know what it is. Especially since Copeland's total swing between 1997 and 2010 had been smaller- 'just' a 22-point swing!
Also, I'm not sure how hated Lewis is, considering that he increased his majority between 2010 and 2015. Maybe he has massively dropped the ball in these past two years, but considering it was a 72% Leave zone, I'm pretty sure they'll be happy to have Ms. Hard Brexit as PM. I'd argue that maybe UKIP could win that se-ahahahaha. I mean, if UKIP could actually win elections, then sure, they could really have a shot at this seat. But somehow I feel it will remain Tory.
The SNP will be taking Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale. 900 votes is a hairline victory and given the SNPs continued gains, it will be SNP come june.
That one is, indeed, an ultra-marginal seat, so the SNP will have a credible shot at it. Of course, it had been an ultra-marginal seat for a decade of Tory wins, so it's not like it will be easy, considering how the recent Scottish elections showed the SNP plateauing and your hated polls show the Tories gaining a few points in Scotland overall, but yes. It will be a close deal.
Norwich North will go to Labour, Smith is widely unpopular now in the city, both in her own constituency and in Norwich South, over her continued inaction over issues in the city.
What can I say? Another seat where Labour's share has collapsed rapidly since Blair's first term. Now they have a three-termer Tory MP who has been steadily increasing her majority in every election. And her recent inaction may be excused because, well, maternity leave.
I mean, I don't live in any of those places. I don't know how people there "feel". And we don't have constituency polling (because, as much as you hate polls, they are the closest thing we have to knowing how people "feel" without having to collect anecdotes and hope they aren't overly biased). Maybe there will be a 15-point swing for Labour in any of those seats. But somehow sings are hinting towards the opposite.
Again, hell, keep up the enthusiasm. Go canvassing around your place! Give pamphlets! Tll people to vote Labour! You have my most sincere support for that. But I still think Corbyn is headed towards a catastrophe.