Looks like Hillary swept all five states contested today. I'm very disappointed, and the results look very poorly for Bernie. He did better than I had hoped for in North Carolina, and much worse in Ohio. His performance in Florida was as I would have soberly expected, and Missouri and Illinois was less than I had hoped. But in terms of delegates, he could have done much, much worse. I'm guessing he'll be another 130 or so delegates down? The overall delegate performance, I think, is comparable with what polling predicted even though this result has terrible optics. I would have gladly traded 7% of Bernie's 41% of the votes in North Carolina and distributed 2% each to Missouri and Illinois and the remainder to Ohio - it would have looked much better for him to win two states and to fight Ohio to a 46-54 loss. But what can you do.
I don't think he's out of the race yet. Even if he would be staying in the race for ideological reasons regardless of his actual performance, I don't think he's completely lost his chance at the nomination. In my opinion, there are two possible opposing trends going forwards. The first is that the optics of tonight's results will deeply impact the media coverage as well as the perception of voters all over America. Hillary will increasingly be seen as inevitable and Bernie's delegate gap will only either stagnate or grow larger, depending on which states are being contested. The second is that the next eight states are supposedly states where Bernie can do very well (and by well I mean winning strong victories, 55-45 to 70-30 victories). If fortune and the perception of the voters favour him, then we'll be seeing nothing but Bernie victories for the next month or so. This might even temper the perceived momentum Hillary gained from tonight. This might allow him to win enough delegates and gain enough "momentum" to make New York a competitive race.
I think New York will be the critical contest in which will decide whether or not Bernie can still become president. New York is the second largest state with 247 pledged delegates. It's also where Clinton had her senatorship (the effects of which I cannot discern, if anybody has insight into this it'd be greatly appreciated). If Bernie loses New York, I don't think anything can save him. If the eight races prior to NY are lukewarm, then it's tough luck when he gets there. If the eight races prior are in his favour, then maybe he can look forward to success. But New York has a closed primary which means independents who want to vote for him have 10 days (until March 25) to register as a Democrat. Independents who are swayed to his side after that date will have no say in whether Bernie receives the nomination or not. His outlook is therefore very bleak.
Full disclosure (as if I haven't stated it already at this point) - I'm rooting for Bernie Sanders all the way. I believe in the man and I believe in his ideas. I believe that his vision of an America that provides real opportunity and dignified existence for all and his mission of creating a political revolution that truly honours the legacy of the founding fathers - a government of, by, and for the people - can resonate deeply within the American public. I hope that his struggle today - whether it results in victory or not - will awaken the American people to fulfil their civic imperative and elect a truly representative government. What Bernie is asking for is actually not at all revolutionary in an ideal and healthy democracy. But America is so far from what it could be that the movement he leads can only be rightfully, wholeheartedly, and regrettably described as revolution.
I'm not ready to speculate on the direction that this political movement should go should Bernie lose the nomination, and for now I'm glad I don't have to. Given all I know about Bernie Sanders' ideas, dedication, and integrity, I can only wish him the best going forwards. That's much more than I can say for the rest of the candidates.
That's it for me: I've already lost enough sleep tonight, but I'm still feeling the Bern. :)
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