Back to the Basics [Game Over]

[Bidoof FTW]

what if the doctor wasn't the reason why no one died last night and it was the drunk roleblocking the mafia?

Since there isn't one specific mafia that decides on the kill a roleblock won't stop the kill unless only one mafia is alive. (based on EM experience)

 

[dad]

Since there isn't one specific mafia that decides on the kill a roleblock won't stop the kill unless only one mafia is alive. (based on EM experience)

true, forgot about it being EM based.

i haven't really seen anyone really say anything about the cultist being in the game which sorta leaves me to believe that he still might be in and silently taking over. just like to get this in the water, get some conversation going.

 

[jdthebud]

If there is a cultist (which I wholeheartly believe), they are still around and working. The phase posts are not giving us any obvious clues about anything so Superjolt could have been a cultist recruit.

 

[KetsuekiR]

Since both Superjolt and Nimsy were put into scum spotlight yesterday, I think it's more than possible that the vig went after one of the two.

In any case, the probability of the cultist being dead has now increased and even if that isn't the case, it's one less third party to worry about.

 

[Alex Kaz]

In any case, the probability of the cultist being dead has now increased and even if that isn't the case, it's one less third party to worry about.

Super wasn't the cult head. If he was the other cultists would die with him. Maybe a recruited cultist.
There is a chance kaneki was the cult head. He often misses NAs so it wouldn't be weird if he missed his n0 one. And so noone would die with him. I also think he wasn't a recruited cultist because noone would want to recruit someone who vegs often.
So, by now there are 0,2 or 3 cultists.

Edit : No wait, we had 3 nights so far, not 2 my bad.
There should be 0, 3 or 4 cultists.

 

[esperance]

A bit of a gut feeling but I think the cult is still alive.

Also, I think that Bard and NightKrow are both a bit suss. Bard especially on D1 was far less contributive than he usually is, while NightKrow yet again "forgets" she's in a game which I've seen her use as a diversion tactic in the past.

 

[Nagi]

These are Nimsy's reads, even tho a bit outdated. So, is this a frame attempt or was she onto something? Thoughts?

sorry, how do you mean a 'frame' attempt exactly?
my first instinct was to track down the people she was suspicious of, yeah, since Nimsy usually is the perceptive type, i think. i just hope she wasn't an important role...

regarding the double kill - i assume the first victim listed is the mafia kill? so that'd make Nimsy. makes the most sense too imo, since she tends to be dangerous, and Superjolt was under some suspicion himself, so if he wasn't mafia to start with it wouldn't be bad for them to keep him alive, yeah?
for the same reason, i think Superjolt's murder could be a vig hit... though my first thought was that it must've been done by the witch. but that would mean that whatever his role was, he had to visit someone. which would make him either a survivor or a cultist based on the setup we assume we're in.

if the cultists and the witch visit the same person, does that kill one of the cultists at random?

EDIT: never mind, i don't know what my brain was doing, but i get the 'frame' bit now, hahah.

 

[Alex Kaz]

I don't think not contributing D1 is a good reason to suspect Bard. He said he is quiet early as town and loud as mafia, and thinking back in recent games, this holds true in mafia madness where he was town and also in his return where he was mafia. If anything his overall activity could hint he is town sided.
However, there are things he did for which he is my primary suspect atm.
He was among the two, along with Johnny, who encouraged Klippy to shoot his gun preemptively.
He says he suspects me because of my behaviour while I'm fairly certain he knows I get triggered easily. He also made his post seem easygoing, throwing suspicion on me while at the same time seeming peaceful

Johnny's actions are par for the course for Johnny - that guy's about as abrasive as sandpaper and has all the tact of a machine gun. Your response to it is what I refer to as unusually confrontational. You were completely in line to defend yourself and give a somewhat heated response, but you were too heated, which is the reason for the scumread.

I will admit that I find Johnny questionable as well, but he acts that way regardless of alignment. The key isn't raw behavior, it's in analyzing trends and spotting outliers. I make a great example - I tend to be very quiet as an inno and more vocal and informative as mafia... which made me easy to spot in the past. But now that I say this and admit it out loud, well, now you have no idea what to expect :D

Bac does have a point. I'm not ready to lynch you yet, but you better believe that if innos turn up dead tonight I'll start pushing for a lynch, and you'd be my first pick. Just sayin', I'm giving you a fair warning. At the same time though, we have plenty of time before then, and I'll think things over before well and truly starting to point fingers.

I'm mainly putting my thoughts out there because people are pointing fingers at me. I wanna be crystal clear where I stand at this point, and if I'm standing on quicksand, then I suppose it's my own damn fault if I sink.

This post makes me feel that he is trying to blend in, taking a diplomatic course of action while at the same time backstabbing me. Maybe I'm biased because it's me he is referring to, so I'd like to hear more thoughts on this post.

And lastly he kind of softed gs yesterday, but he is still here. Maybe it's not much cause for an alarm because the hooker can just roleblock him while the mafia searches for the cop, but it could also be the other way, meaning that he is here because he is mafia himself.

 

[NightKrow]

A bit of a gut feeling but I think the cult is still alive.

Also, I think that Bard and NightKrow are both a bit suss. Bard especially on D1 was far less contributive than he usually is, while NightKrow yet again "forgets" she's in a game which I've seen her use as a diversion tactic in the past.

I take it you haven't actually seen my exam schedule. :c
and tbf I couldn't even remember the characters' names in Touhou so... :/

-

If we are in setup #6, then Superjolt could have been the Autocrat or maybe a cult member if he was the vig kill (although cult member is probably less likely seeing as he's been under suspicion for a while.) Alternatively, he could have been the witch kill as an unlucky Survivor, but would he allow himself to look suspicious as a Survivor? It's also possible that Superjolt was the Angel and whoever killed him meant to kill someone else but that someone was being protected by the Angel. It's not very likely though. I reckon it was a vig kill personally, but other ways are possible.

It's also entirely possible that Nimsy's death was used to frame those people, but we shouldn't dismiss it straight away either. We should watch them carefully, but we should form our own reads on them as well. I don't think it's enough to start a bandwagon on them personally but I wouldn't oppose it if more stuff comes up. I feel Klippy's been fairly helpful so far, but I'm not too sure on Ulli or Bard. I'd have to read back through the thread to form decent reads on them though (and just when I thought I could spend my evening playing the Emerald randomlocke :( )

Still no guns btw.

 

[Mana1]

Both Nimsy and Superjolt would be good kill options, they're both experienced at reading players and throwing curveballs to trip people up. With the amount of reads being thrown about already it could well be a framing job.

I'm not sure on Ullion - I thought he was just coming up with possibilities of Nimsy's role just to get a post in. But then I looked back and... there was an odd moment with Nimsy D1 > Nimsy mentions a GS claim > but I'm not sure who or what she's referring to? There's nobody claiming Gunsmith, so perhaps it was Nimsy's way of subtly/unsubtly coming out.

 

[Alex Kaz]

Well, it doesn't look like I have analyzed the situation, I honestly have. And I didnt vote for you, I just posted my thoughts on you. But there you go voting me hoping to end the conversation. I'm getting scummy vibes out of this, someone town sided would want to keep the conversation going the way I see it.
And you're doing the exact opposite atm.

So, I'll try to keep it going and ask you this : who else do you suspect besides me?

 

[Alex Kaz]

I agree that not voting first can be considered scummy. But I wouldn't be so loud and asking for opinions would I now?

Anyway, I'm also having my eyes on Lisia cuz I'm getting kinda tired of the confused thing

So I've read the thread and I'm a little confused, but it seems today majority is leaning toward NL again. I've been kind of out of it, but I'll try to post more... Still uncertain about which setup this could be, but my gut is feeling there isn't a fool at least. Or if there is, they're not doing a good job at getting lynched early. xD

[Vote] No One

I can't explain why but I don't like this post in the slightest

I also suspect Mana a bit. He's not too vocal usually, but has something to say everytime. This time around he's gone inactive which is troubling me. And while I was thinking about this, he made a post and made it all go away. It might even be his intention to post as much as to not appear inactive, idk.

Not sure about Jd. He is never vocal enough, but I think he's more silent as mafia, so I'll give you that.

 

[Who's Kiyo?]

I can explain why I don't like Lisia's post. It's because it's a halfhearted attempt to make it seem like she's doing some work. "I can't keep up! But (nearly confirmed fact) was stated, so I'm gonna bring it up to show I was vaguely paying attention, and though I'm worried about (nearly confirmed fact) being untrue, it seems unlikely! :D"

Bringing up invalid concern seems incredibly scummy to me and like she's speaking for the sole purpose of making herself seem inno.

Yo also still got no gun today, so +1 to idea that GS is dead.​

 

[Ullion]

I agree that the gunsmith is looking more likely to be dead as time goes on. But if we want to be picky with numbers and odds, there is a chance that any combination of the GS being blocked and/or giving guns to the mafia is a possibility. :/ Tbh, I think I like the idea of the GS being dead moreso than the mafia having 2 guns at their disposal already. .-.

I'm not sure how many games I've played with Lisia, so I can't comment on how she plays (afaik she died immediately in Nintendo mafia, and i don't remember anything about her from His Return). But commenting on the fool when we're (essentially?) confirmed in a setup with no fool is weird. If we have no solid leads today, I think Lisia could be a reasonable backup plan for a lynch?

And second to what Bard said - how do we know Golgari is not town?

 

[ジュナイパー]

Other than Klippy's gun, no one has received any guns. Is it possible that the Gunsmith died on D1? Or that someone knows who they are and is constantly roleblocking them? While the second one makes little sense, it's all I've got. Wow. Ninja'd. Thanks for stealing my spotlight, Ulli...

Lisia, you better watch your back. We're all scumreading you.

 

[Ullion]

Assuming you're correct (and Golgari is being truthful when denying being the snoop) then he has a 50% chance of being not-dangerous (Survivor, angel), and 50% of being a good target (Sniper, Cult).

At the very least, it doesn't seem like we would lose anything other than a number to weigh against the mafia's numbers. Considering as such, Golgari seems like a better option as opposed to Lisia at the moment.

Also side note: I don't think I'd count that as a saltwar. xD

 

[KetsuekiR]

I definitely agree on Golgari being a better option for a lynch than Lisia since all we have on Lisia at the moment is a terribly thought of post.

Also, considering that there's both a hooker and a drunk in the game, it's quite possible the GS is just being constantly roleblocked. In fact, if the hooker roleblocked them once, it's more than likely they will continue to roleblock the GS until they die. In that sense, the GS may as well be dead until we take out the Hooker.

Anyway, I'll start it off then. [Vote] Golgari

 

[Bidoof FTW]

Hi I'm the survivor just trying to live my life thank you. Johnny finding excuses to OMGUS me is cute af and making me incredibly sad considering that I'm actually scumhunting.

In other news work is a bitch so I'm sorry if I can't respond to every post diligently. I think there are so many other people we've been having 'fos' on over and over again but since no vote has even gone their way (Bard, Gunner) I'm a tad upset that Johnny OMGUS'ing me with smoke and mirrors is actually working considering the vote above and Ullion's post.

But, by all means, lynch the guy who has no purpose other than living in someone else's house at night and not getting lynched, next time I just won't try to help the town or scumhunt because obviously that's what has votes on me right now.

 

[jdthebud]

Guys, this is Golgari's first comment on the setup:

If there's no fab we're the 3rd game from the bottom.

My initial take was that he was claiming bulletproof here. His later comment about there being no fool was I thought just a rehash of this comment, given that there is almost no chance of a fabricator, unless they have been giving out vests for some reason, which I find very unlikely.

I think that Lisia is acting very similar to how she acted in Touhou, where she was a mafia > SK. [Vote] Lisia

 

[Bidoof FTW]

^ Adding on the above and my roleclaim by saying that there are only two setups with survivor, one with fab and one without. That's how I knew what setup we were based on there being no fab.

EDIT: [Lynch] Lisia

EDIT AGAIN: Looking back I now realize sniper, angel, and CL have similar situations with fab/no fab but I'm genuinely being honest and the only reason I'd even be so obvious and outgoing about my role is because I'm not a harmful role, I don't think I'd have done the same thing as a mafia or key 3rd party :/

EdIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT: I don't really have fos on Johnny anymore, his aggressiveness is annoying and peeving me off a bit but after looking over the possible roles I really doubt he'd do such a thing as maf, and ngl I feel like cop investigated him and would've come out with something by now if he was alive and Johnny is maf