*BIG POST TIME*
Ok, here we go!
Who I think is clear or NOT likely to be mafia:
- Wicked (b/c of him vs Nimsy, obviously), Gunner, Nightkrow, Bard, El Héroe
Who I think the scum team is:
I'm almost positive the scum team is Nimsy-Gimmepie-Alex-Abby-GreyBidoof
Now to explain...
Gonna start with the scum team (skipping Nimsy because lol)
Gimmepie:
Pretty self-explanatory. aeternum is pretty likely to be true and got a mafia result on him TWICE. Not to mention his push on a BS connection between Kaneki, Bard, aeternum and Wicked. He also sort of kept a distance from Nimsy and never committed to a full read on her.
Alex (replaced Ash):
So, Alex doesn't really look scummy... he actually looks kind of town. HOWEVER, with JaDe's result on Ash and JaDe having such a high chance of being insane, Alex is pretty much scum too, because among JaDe, Desi, Nightkrow, Wicked, GB...
they can't all be confused (and if JaDe is confused, then that means there are TWO people lying among the ones who claimed confused). This also means that Nimsy was bussing Ash on D2, but for Nimsy in that situation, it would have a benefit either way because: if Ash got lynched somehow while she was inactive, then woohoo! Nimsy would earn all that town-cred for lynching mafia! But since Nimsy didn't make a strong push to lynch Ash, it didn't matter because her teammate was unlikely to be lynched anyway.
Abby:
Oof... Abby's a little harder to explain beyond general bad vibes. First thing I made note of though was her vote for Bard on D3, she avoids both main wagons (JaDe, Nimsy). She votes for Bard (she claims it was a "throwaway vote") at a time when there could have been a decent chance of Bard getting lynched because of Desi's results (and could have been an easy mislynch if Bard is town and things had turned that way) (and also what benefit would town get from making a "throwaway vote" anyway?). She never takes a stance on Nimsy vs Wicked, and I think the first time she actually mentions either of them is on D4... She also said she was sus of Desi on D3, but if she really thought she might have any chance of being true and if she thought Desi had a chance of being mafia, why check Wicked instead of Desi on N3? Also her list of suspicions from today don't make much sense, and she happened to forget aeternum's results on GP apparently.
GreyBidoof:
I don't have much to say about GB because there isn't much to talk about. His refusal to share his results to prove his claim of being confused doesn't make any sense. GB kind of always plays like this, but I get the feeling that town!GB would actually share his results and try to help town somewhat (because I think there's a very slight, but noticeable difference between GB's town play and GB's scum play). His reasons for voting Wicked on D3 don't make sense either. I think Nimsy voting GB at this point looks like a last ditch effort to keep us off his trail.
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Now why I think my town reads are town, starting with Gunner...
Gunner:
- She's been pretty quiet, but really hasn't done anything that looks scummy
- I would think mafia would be more likely to go along with saying they checked JaDe N2 because it's easier (but Gunner didn't so that's a plus for her)
- Also Gunner could have gone with the easy JaDe mislynch on D3 but voted Nimsy instead (which if Gunner was bussing Nimsy, it doesn't make sense because Gunner's vote put Nimsy one step closer to being the leading wagon, plus her vote is consistent with her suspicion)
Bard:
- Bard's in the same boat as Gunner pretty much, because he also voted for Nimsy on D3 and is probably not scum for that same reason ^
- Also with Nimsy and GP both pretty much scum and lying about being paranoid, it makes Bard pretty likely to be paranoid then
- And also, my scum reads have Bard among
their scum reads or have tried to push Bard as scum (like GP) --> this one could also apply to Gunner
Nightkrow:
- Her posts in general just read as genuine to me
- Really hasn't done anything that looks scummy
- She has that air of paranoia toward Desi's results on D3 that I would expect from a townie, her N3 check on Desi looks slightly convenient at first but the check lines up with her thoughts from D3
El Héroe:
- El admitted to forgetting to send his night actions, if he was scum I would expect him to just give out fake results like the rest of his team
- He also just seems genuinely confused/not invested in the game as opposed to scum trying to be distracting
Wicked:
- Obviously can't see him as scum just because of him vs Nimsy
- Also, GP tried to push him as part of his BS "connection" and GB voted him on D3
So here's how I think we should proceed:
- lynch Nimsy today (Day 5)
- GP Day 6
- Abby and/or GB after that
- I'd lynch Alex last
PLEASE NOTE: These are my reads, don't take this as 100% the definite scum team or anything, because like I said no one is ever perfect with their reads,
HOWEVER I do feel very very confident about these reads.
If you're town and you're unsure or have doubts, ask each other questions to help figure things out!
It will still be LYLO tomorrow (6 vs 5 today, 5 vs 4 tomorrow...)
Other notes:
Sanities update: