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Serious 2020 Democratic Primaries

Ivysaur

Grass dinosaur extraordinaire
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    Bernie and Warren now sit above him in the polls.

    In ONE poll that interviewed about 300 people (unsual minimum required for an accurate result with only 3% margin of error is at least 1,000).

    Look, I understand Biden is the last choice for most young people, and also too wishy-washy and is doing a bad campaign. All of that is true! But wait until at least there are TWO polls saying that before burying him, please. Otherwise you might get mad if this poll turns out to be an accident and he refuses to go down in the coming months.

    2020 Democratic Primaries
     
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    Hands

    I was saying Boo-urns
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    In ONE poll that interviewed about 300 people (unsual minimum required for an accurate result with only 3% margin of error is at least 1,000).

    Look, I understand Biden is the last choice for most young people, and also too wishy-washy and is doing a bad campaign. All of that is true! But wait until at least there are TWO polls saying that before burying him, please. Otherwise you might get mad if this poll turns out to be an accident and he refuses to go down in the coming months.

    2020 Democratic Primaries

    The polls do not matter at this point. Sanders went on Rogan, and suddenly tens of thousands of comments from people who would never normally consider the dems are supporting him. He went on Fox and got constant applause and backing from the crowd (and again, on the video comments, support from people who would usually never vote Dem). His support base is wildly bigger than you are giving it credit for and whilst Biden may poll better for now that really doesn't amount to much when you consider how much polling is done via landlines. For that to work you have to consider how many people were home, how many of them are actually politically active etc.

    Biden is bad. He got absolutely bodied by Kamala Harris (a candidate so messy that even Gabbard managed to destroy her on stage) and has made no end of gaffes that make "cofeve" seem like nothing. He's made racist comments on stage, constantly messes up his lines and alienates virtually every voter group except for middle class whites. He's terrible. He will not last. Polls or not.
     

    Ivysaur

    Grass dinosaur extraordinaire
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    that really doesn't amount to much when you consider how much polling is done via landlines

    Which is extremely little. If you care to look at pollsters, you'll see that most of the surveys are taken online, through panels, or via mobile phone calls, which some landlines thrown in to get older people. The only poll I know of that systematically uses landlines is Rasmussen, Trump's favourite pollster as it massively overrepresents Republicans (obviously)- it predicted Rs would win the House vote in the midterms, a net R+10 error. None of the (serious) polls for the Dem primary are landline- Yougov and Morning Consult are online, ABC-WaPo, Quinnipiac, WSJ and Fox are mobile-phone, etc.

    The polls do not matter at this point. Sanders went on Rogan, and suddenly tens of thousands of comments from people who would never normally consider the dems are supporting him. He went on Fox and got constant applause and backing from the crowd (and again, on the video comments, support from people who would usually never vote Dem).

    Biden is bad. He got absolutely bodied by Kamala Harris (a candidate so messy that even Gabbard managed to destroy her on stage) and has made no end of gaffes that make "cofeve" seem like nothing. He's made racist comments on stage, constantly messes up his lines and alienates virtually every voter group except for middle class whites. He's terrible. He will not last. Polls or not.

    Look, look. If you know my politics you'll know I'm far closer to Sanders than to Biden. I'm personally more into Warren (who is also drawing record crowds and spending 3 hours standing there just to make sure every attendant can take a selfie with her after her speech is over) but I'll take Sanders before Biden.

    But if you look at the reporting, you'll see so. many. people. going all "well Uncle Joe is harmless at worst and if he can win the Rust Belt, I'll take him". I don't want to argue about it, because I have nothing personal invested in him, but Biden is going to make it to the eraly primaries and win a handful of them, at least. Maybe it'll be two, like Rubio in 2016, and will fade into obscurity after Super Tuesday. But he is literally leading the polls right now and his "Gaffe machine" image helps him avoid serious repercussions for his errors, much like Trump.
     
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    Hands

    I was saying Boo-urns
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    Which is extremely little. If you care to look at pollsters, you'll see that most of the surveys are taken online, through panels, or via mobile phone calls, which some landlines thrown in to get older people. The only poll I know of that systematically uses landlines is Rasmussen, Trump's favourite pollster as it massively overrepresents Republicans (obviously)- it predicted Rs would win the House vote in the midterms, a net R+10 error. None of the (serious) polls for the Dem primary are landline- Yougov and Morning Consult are online, ABC-WaPo, Quinnipiac, WSJ and Fox are mobile-phone, etc.



    Look, look. If you know my politics you'll know I'm far closer to Sanders than to Biden. I'm personally more into Warren (who is also drawing record crowds and spending 3 hours standing there just to make sure every attendant can take a selfie with her after her speech is over) but I'll take Sanders before Biden.

    But if you look at the reporting, you'll see so. many. people. going all "well Uncle Joe is harmless at worst and if he can win the Rust Belt, I'll take him". I don't want to argue about it, because I have nothing personal invested in him, but Biden is going to make it to the eraly primaries and win a handful of them, at least. Maybe it'll be two, like Rubio in 2016, and will fade into obscurity after Super Tuesday. But he is literally leading the polls right now and his "Gaffe machine" image helps him avoid serious repercussions for his errors, much like Trump.

    Similarly, I'd take Warren over Biden, any day of the week.

    Biden is hugely hated on social media, something that harmed Clinton in 2016, his numbers are not going to stay where they are, especially when he has to debate directly against Sanders and Sanders tears him apart as Joe blabs out the wrong city and makes another racist remark before hastily trying to undo it.

    I honestly thought most polling companies were using RDD still, maybe I'm wrong on that
     

    Nah

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    As much as I'd really like to see Biden's bid for the presidency be sunk already, it ain't over til it's over, as the old saying goes. I find to difficult to have optimism (in general really, but also) about Biden being guaranteed to not get the nomination in a nation like the current/recent United States of America.
     
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    Anyone else grossed out by Joe Biden's bloody eye tonight? That and his evasiveness seem to be the topic tonight after the climate change town hall.
     

    Hands

    I was saying Boo-urns
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    Anyone else grossed out by Joe Biden's bloody eye tonight? That and his evasiveness seem to be the topic tonight after the climate change town hall.

    I'm more grossed out by his constant lack of physical boundaries with children/women than a medical mishap he had little control over.
     
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    Latest poll out seems to solidify a Warren/Biden two person race with Sanders falling into a distant third. If you count "second choice" candidates then Warren pulls ahead. Warren is ahead with college age whites, while Biden still has a massive lead with African Americans. The first few states have a heavy white majority, so if this trend holds through Christmas you could see Warren racking up early wins.

    https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1174065496880287746?s=21
     
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    I thought this might be helpful to new voters who are interested in participating in the 2020 democratic primary. Remember to register to vote if you are not already a registered voter in your state. A few states actually allow you to register and vote in the primary on the same day such as the Iowa caucus, North Dakota is also a unique state that has no voter registration, meaning you can bypass this process and just walk in to vote. In the large majority of states however you have to be registered in advanced in order to vote during the primary. Most states offer registration until the last few weeks before the primary. My own state North Carolina will hold the democratic primary on March 3rd 2020, with registration accepted until February 7th.

    You can use the link below Headcount to find out more about the requirements for your state. This is not a 100℅ complete guide, the deadline of a handful of states do not appear. I believe that Minnesota, Montana and New Mexico have not announced the deadline for registration just yet. If you live in one of the aforementioned states and have never voted before I would advise you to contact your local board of elections for more information. The date of the primary itself in Minnesota is March 3rd 2020, and on June 2nd 2020 in both Montana and New Mexico, but you will probably need to be registered beforehand.
    https://www.headcount.org/deadlines-dates/?section=pres

    While Headcount has not been updated to include registration deadlines for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada at the moment, I was able to find the deadlines for these states online after a little bit of digging. The 2020 Nevada Caucus is on February 22nd, and the registration deadline is February 2nd. The Ohio primary is on March 17th, and you would need to be registered by February 18th. Wisconsin's primary is on April the 7th, with registration being accepted until March 18th. Last but not least. Pennsylvania's primary is on April 28th, and registration is through March 29th.

    If you are only 17 years old, but will be 18 by the time of the general election on Nov 3rd 2020 you may be able to still register to vote and participate in the primary depending on your state regulations. At Fairvote you can find out which states allow 17 year-old primary voting.
    https://www.fairvote.org/primary_voting_at_age_17

    I hope folks find this info helpful. I think every state is able to still accept registration from new prospective voters, except the state of New York, which has has been a controversial state with regard to voting lately. New Yorkers closed their doors to new applicants back this May when most of us didn't even know who was running! That is over a full year before the primary next June. It is quite ridiculous. If you are already registered to vote in New York though, but not registered to vote as a Democrat however there is still time to change your party affiliation to a democrat now through October 11 if you are a republican or independent voter living in New York who is interested in supporting a democrat this primary season. New York is a closed primary state, meaning you can only vote in the democratic primary if you declare as a democrat.

    Some states do not require you to be a democrat to vote in the democratic primary, these are known as open primaries, where voters can potentially identify with any or no party at all, and still request a ballot in the primary of their choosing. To find out whether your state holds open or closed primaries click here.

    https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/primary-types.aspx

    Also whether you are brand new voter, or voter who is changing party affiliations or a long-time democrat voter it never hurts to make sure the status of your registration is correct and the board of elections has any necessary paperwork.
     
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    The Democrats are in absolute shambles. There is no one in that camp capable of unseating someone outside of the system. What's more, every candidate raised their hand to essentially give free stuff away at the cost of the American taxpayer.

    Mah boi 'Beto' blatently laid out the Democrats plan to steal every law abiding citizen's property away (taking away semi-automatics? That means EVERYTHING). No limit (not illegal) to who can enter the country through the Southern border and they all agreed on this? What Orwellian nightmare am I in?

    Their climate change hall meeting was a laughable circus nightmare. "We'll take away the red meat" and a quick switch to "No one is saying they want to take away your cheeseburgers". Promoting solar and wind (currently failures of industry, but they do rake in cash because subsidies) yet you need plastics to make them, plastics that come from . . . fossil fuels.

    You have Biden and Warren, both who will get absolutely shredded if they get anywhere near a debate podium with Trump. Love him or hate him, Trump will run circles around Biden (they've already put out campaign ads featuring poor Joe). Warren won't fare much better I imagine, seeing as how her 'lying about her heritage' can be put to the screws regardless whether or not she's sorry about it. I can see is now "You've lied about who you were personally, so how can we trust you to do what's in our best interest?".

    Not only this, but President Trump decided not to retaliate and start yet another war in the Middle East? People criticized him for not attacking and killing people for downing a drone? There are many moving parts to this, but their first debates nearly shoveled dirt on the grave of the center voters. Promising free Healthcare to people from foreign countries? Such a surprise to see how quickly they wanted to give free stuff to people who weren't citizens of the United States using their money to do so.

    If they can't get a grip, they'll be in the water before they realise their ship is sinking. There is no unified front here. They seem to be in a 'who cares more' competition and they are all bringing some heavy baggage with them too. Kamala toker jailing DA, Beto 'Habla Espanol' Francis, Huffing hair Joe, Warren 'Pocahontas', 'I may or may not be a wife-beater' Booker, 'Cash-money' ¥ang and just Bernie Sanders.

    How in blue blazes is this reasonable? Labelling doesn't work any longer, meaning club cards won't mean anything the the center/center-left. I think their best bet was Tulsi Gabbard but they seemed to have slammed the door in her face! Absolutely mad! Tulsi Gabbard, I thought, was one that could go toe-to-toe with President Trump. She's relatively fresh, a Veteran (appeals to center/center-right) and has seemingly less baggage than everyone else, including President Trump I think.

    If the DNC chooses Biden as the candidate . . . I'd almost feel sorry for the guy if he wasn't a hair-huffing weirdo. They better start swallowing horse-shoes, eating crickets and smoking four-leaf clovers because they need all the luck they can get.
     

    User Anon 1848

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    https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1185289626409406464

    Queen! It's a shame that she's not a better public speaker because it's held her back in the debates so far even though I agree with most of her policies. Yang has grown on me too. I may have been a little too rough on him in the beginning. I'll take these two over the establishment dems any day.
     

    Her

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    I don't believe in ol' Hillary's 'Tulsi is working for the Russians' nonsense, and her comments on Hillary are largely in line with my own thinking, but I do wonder why so many self-professed right wingers are championing her. At least, in the observable online spaces I see, since I'm not James Brown voice Living in America. There's something not quite right that I haven't been able to put my finger on.
     
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    I am going to suggest it's the train wreck factor/somewhat centrist policies, since Republicans have no reason to support any particular candidate why not go with the one closest to them in ideology, while also enjoying some of her more outlandish things she says. It's somewhat common in American politics, back in 2008, I think it was called "Operation Chaos" or something by Limbaugh and other right wing radio hosts.
     

    User Anon 1848

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    Probably because she's moderate compared to some of the other candidates, has called for civil discourse and respect between both parties during a very divisive period of time where many would rather sling mud and is one of the few to speak up against big tech censorship, which usually targets those further to the right. I'd like to think that most people, left or right, could appreciate her foreign policy if nothing else though.
     
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    Hillary Clinton's attempt to weigh in on the primary discussion with this unhinged McCarthyist smear of Tulsi Gabbard as a Russian asset isn't the only curious thing she did recently. Her website was also updated to outline her policy positions, though this hardly seems necessary for someone not currently in or running for office.

    Now her advisor Phillip Reines said in a FOX interview that Clinton is leaving the door open to a 2020 primary run, and made the case for why she might jump in if she sees her chance and thinks she could beat Trump.
    https://www.newsweek.com/clinton-ai...ary-2020-run-senate-dems-urge-her-not-1467653

    Hillary Clinton has made a couple of comments now flirting with the possibility of her run.
    https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/4...20-speculation-clinton-has-to-put-this-to-bed

    It sounds like she will crash the party if a crack in the door opens 1 inch wide.

    Mike Bloomberg is also threatening to run so he can block Elizabeth Warren if she rises anymore, and Biden falls. In 2016 he said he was going to the same thing if Bernie Sanders was the nominee.

    https://www.salon.com/2019/10/15/mi...un-for-president-as-warren-surges-biden-sags/

    So we've been put on notice. Biden is corporate America's man, but he's not the only card they have to play. They still have the Clinton card and the Bloomberg card up their sleeve.
     
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    I don't think either Clinton or this Bloomberg guy pose any significant threat to Biden, Sanders or Warren honestly. Clinton's failed attempt in 2016 has burned any chance at 2020 and even though Bloomberg probably stands more of a chance than she does, I can't see the more centrist corporate Democrats jumping off the Biden wagon or Warren and Sanders losing their pretty staunch support.

    A bigger concern really is that Sanders and Warren's support bases could overlap a lot and sap from each other potentially paving the way for Biden to creep in.
     
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    I really hope Clinton doesn't try to run again :rowlyikes: I'm not a fan of Gabbard by any means, but that entire exchange was a bit much.

    I think her being the candidate would cause too much division within the Democratic party, and we'd be back with a Trump presidency. @_@

    Right now, I'm behind Warren with maybe a VP of Castro.
     

    Ivysaur

    Grass dinosaur extraordinaire
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    Clinton is not going to run unless she really wants to get 1% in Iowa and end her career in total and complete humilliation. She's absolutely done and anyone (reporters, pundits, donors) who keeps saying "please run" is just deluding themselves. There already are what, 15 candidates still running? If Clinton jumps now, she'll be left to fight with Bullock for the centrist leftovers. She tried, she lost, time to get over it.

    And if Bloomberg is really interested in a centrist candidacy, he'd better give a few billions to Klobuchar, at least she's already in the race and has some infrastructure.
     
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    Clinton may be the consensus candidate if Biden continues to falter. What I mean is outside of Biden, who is the establishment of the Democratic party really going to push? Warren is a possibility but she continues to have her own problems with raising taxes on the middle class to fund Medicare for All. The establishment will never back Bernie, and beyond that you get to candidates with either little name recognition/power or who have significant problems.
     

    Ivysaur

    Grass dinosaur extraordinaire
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    Clinton may be the consensus candidate.

    Certainly not in this universe. Unless people really have no idea whatsoever of what democratic voters really care about. Clinton cannot, and will not, be nominated by the democratic base after her defeat to Trump. Full stop.
     
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