Serious 2020 Democratic Primaries

welp.

Business as usual for the Democratic Party. I do have a couple questions:

Why didn't the 18-29 vote show up? Why did the guts of most undecided Democratic voters pick Biden? Can we count on Biden to be more electable than Trump this November?
 
Kanzler said:
Why didn't the 18-29 vote show up?
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It's hard to motivate people to show up when they feel like the system is rigged against them and, to an extent, they're right. It's worrying though, because the system will enevr get fixed if nobody shows up to elect the people who'll put the work in to achieving that.
 
On top of people thinking the system is rigged, long lines at polling sites also contribute to the lower turnout. I saw stories on reddit the other day about people observing peers in the 18-29 age range showing up to the polls to vote, only to leave because of long lines being a "waste of time."
 
I imagine that part of the reason why a lot of the undecideds went for Biden is that this country as a whole doesn't skew towards the left very much and so were more likely to vote for Biden to begin with, plus the whole "Biden is probably more electable" thing.

But I don't think that Biden is as electable as some people want to think. Fielding the same sort of candidate (an old centrist democrat) that lost to Trump 4 years ago should be enough of a sign by itself to cast doubt on that. On top of that, I have a hard time imagining that a major part of the Trump campaign strategy won't be to routinely bring up Ukraine or the Creepy Uncle Joe thing, nevermind Biden's ever increasing number of gaffes....and all these things will undoubtedly have some effect.

Personally I don't really care for the whole electability argument. It almost always favors the status quo candidate, and every person who goes "well I like X better but Y is more electable so I'll vote for Y" is ironically contributing to the reason why X is perceived to be less electable--if all these people went and voted for X, they'd find that X is suddenly more electable than they appeared. Why should we vote for the "electable" moderate? So we can be told to do it again 4 years later because the conservative is worse than the moderate Democrat? When there's always going to be a conservative and they're always going to be the worse choice of the two?

It's time that the moderates took a fucking chance on progressives and vote for them, otherwise it's just going to come and bite them in the ass someday, and they'll have no one but themselves to blame.

Though tbh I'm not optimistic (when am I ever optimistic though) that either Sanders or Biden or anyone really could defeat Trump this year.
 
so, a couple of things. i realize that this perspective is very unpopular on this community, and i apologise in advance. playing devil's advocate is not something that i'd imagine people particularly enjoy doing, but i feel like it's necessary for some food for thought sometimes. this, i feel, is one of those times.

i'd like to preface this post by saying that out of everyone on the current democratic field, i'd vote for Bernie Sanders a hundred times over. ideologically, i feel like my views align with his the most. i'm a struggling college student, i avoid hospitals (i shouldn't, but y'know...'murica) because i really don't want to deal with the medical bills, and im currently working a job that doesn't pay me nearly enough to survive. all of these things combined make me a prime target for the foundation of what Sanders is talking about, and in a lot of ways, he's right. this country is fundamentally broken is a lot of ways and i feel, imo, that he's the best candidate to fix those, our national debt be damned. fiscal republicans and democrats can bitch about it all they want, economically speaking as long as our interest rate is low and our economy is "good" (read: no recession), the larger number is meaningless. a government being in debt is not the same as an individual being in debt and i think that's what a lot of people don't realize.

anyway, onto my main point... which is that it's worth taking a step back and thinking about why Joe Biden appeals to a lot of people to begin with. i think it's quite tunnel-visioned to say that his appeal lies just in the fact that he's a moderate. sure, that's a part of it, he's certainly a moderate compared to literally anything Sanders offers, but the biggest contrast that i see between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders is the execution of their message. this basically means that while the substance of what you say is important, how you say it is more important. if you don't believe me, consider how many times you've heard (if you have, that is) that Hillary Clinton sounds "inauthentic" and "fake" in comparison to Sanders in 2016. Sanders gave a message of revolution which was strong, Clinton sounded flat in comparison. she sounded boring, corporate and at a lot of times, stiff in her speeches. Sanders in that same time period was a new face that REALLY riled up the anger that young people felt towards the government during that time and wanted a complete overhaul of how things were done, and kickstarted the rise of the progressive movement.

how your message comes across and how you deliver it speaks volumes to people. this is the biggest reason why Sanders, as far as im aware, has been struggling a lot with expanding his base. people who vote for him agree with the bigger picture of his platform (i mean duh, but i'll get to why this matters) and also are the people who are directly most impacted by it. it's imperative that the US finally be brought to the 21st century as far as healthcare is concerned and it's ridiculous that college costs as much as it has, among other things like eliminating student debt and the like, you get the point. Sanders' policies to his supporters make sense on a logical level.

Joe Biden is different in the sense that he focuses a lot on the execution of his message rather than the substance of it. personally speaking i don't remember a damn thing that Biden has promised as the top issue that he plans to tackle rather than turning the clock and things being as the were back in the Obama era except i think Biden is slightly more left, but that'd be about the only difference. i mean, everyone is already familiar with his gaffes and stumps by now but like... Biden's personality as an affable old man who hugs people a lot, talks about his dead son a lot and in general speaks about things in a much more emotional, humanistic way makes people feel like he cares about them on an individual level. whether you personally feel he actually does or not is irrelevant, but it's the biggest difference between the two and quite the stark difference, at that.

Sanders does very little of this, in contrast. it's more often "the 1%" "the millionaires and the billionaires" and (insert something negative about the Democratic Party here). i mean, yeah, logically, he's right, but despite being right, he ends up pissing a lot of people off and if not doing that, he ends up looking disconnected to the average voter. the thing is, Sanders spills out hard truths that people don't want to hear, but need to. his supporters are more often than not people who resonate with those hard truths in wanting to weed out corruption in government. and look, it's not that Biden supporters are in some super different camp when it comes to wanting corruption out of government, but they feel that Biden's more "friendlier" image is better for the job as they prioritise that execution more than a guy who constantly sounds like his default speaking voice is like 75 decibels.

a lot people also think Biden's "dementia" is going to bite him in the ass against Trump in the debates and i've seen countless upon countless times that people fear that Trump is going to demolish Biden, but let's not forget that Trump lost all three debates against Clinton yet that wasn't a guarantee for her to get into the white house. Trump is not some debating mastermind like some people think he is, he's an incompetent moron. he didn't win the presidency because of his debate skills, he won the presidency in part because he delivered his message in an effective way and convinced enough people that he was an outsider moderate republican that was going to change things for the better instead of the same old corporate dc bullshit. despite his electoral college win, it's not like Trump won important states by a landslide. Florida was won by a percent and some change, Pennsylvania was won by a thinner margin, and North Carolina was won by 3%, and Michigan was won by like less than half a percent?

anyway the tl;dr of all of this is to provide a different perspective of sorts. it'll be interesting to see what happens in the coming months as to whether or not Biden maintains his lead or whether Sanders catches up.
 
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Counterpoint: If how you present your argument was as big a factor as you suggest, Biden would have dropped out by now with no support because he can barely string a sentence together.

That aside, you do have a point about Sanders' appeal. Most people aren't interested in the greater good, they are interested in what they perceive as being the best for them and aren't about to do the research into why Sanders' policies are the best for literally everyone who isn't a corrupt billionaire.
 
It's crazy to me that there were so many Democratic candidates I actually liked this year (kind of rare for me) and now it looks like the only one I would never vote for under any circumstances is the most likely to win. I legitimately don't know what people see in a guy who has had some incredibly awful takes in the past, who has been videoed doing some pretty creepy stuff from time to time (be honest, if it was someone else, you'd be really weirded out), who has repeatedly shown disdain for (relatively) young people and the problems we have to deal with (despite his generation being responsible for a large number of them), and who seems to be beginning to experience some of the negative mental effects of old age. He's also got the same problem I felt Hillary had in 2016, where it feels like he thinks he deserves votes, despite his platform largely being about who he isn't (Bernie or Trump). I legitimately can't stand him and people like him are the reason why I left the Democratic party in the early 2010s (originally to become a Libertarian, later just an unaffiliated independent). Just about any other significant candidate would have been a better choice and I probably would have voted for any of them (Bernie and Mayor Pete being my top two).

To be fair, it's likely to go to a contested convention, but I think it's far more likely Biden would win that than Bernie, even if Bernie somehow had more delegates beforehand. If Bernie doesn't win, I'll probably vote third party like I did in 2016. As an independent, nobody's entitled to my vote, they have to earn it, and Joe hasn't earned a thing from me other than ridicule.

Edit: Also, I've mentioned this before, but people may question why I like Bernie as someone who leans a bit libertarian (no longer affiliated but I still tend to agree with them). I think Bernie's solutions to problems tend to be the wrong ones, but he has a unique focus on the correct issues. The things he talks about with passion are the things I think are the real problems right now, and he's the only one who seems to actually care about them. It doesn't feel like anyone but him really cares about the crappy state of healthcare, massive student debt and education costs, etc. So while I don't necessarily agree with his solutions, I think there'd be a positive effect in that he'd force Congress to actually deal with the issues. And I think in return, Congress would probably limit some of his more extreme solutions. I think the interplay would be a good thing overall.
 
gimmepie said:
Counterpoint: If how you present your argument was as big a factor as you suggest, Biden would have dropped out by now with no support because he can barely string a sentence together.
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true, except it's really easy to do mental gymnastics around Biden's gaffes. what one person sees as an utterly incompetent old man that barely remembers anything important, another person sees as an affable attribute of a folksy dinner table uncle. Biden knows how to play the flute of the latter very well.

alongside what i said before, i did a bit of research (pretty much googling around) to find what other reasons why Biden has been getting such high support. it's of no surprise that black voters are a large part of it, but they like Biden not really because of his issues or policy, but because they feel he can beat Trump. i think this article is a pretty interesting read when you get a chance. o:

"It's frustrating," said Cliff Albright, a co-founder of the nonprofit Black Voters Matter. "Even most of the black people voting with Biden aren't with him because they think he's best on the issues. It's a lot of 'I'm with him because I think he's the best person who can beat Trump.'"
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and that whole article goes into detail about the many black voters that went for Biden and their various reasons. it's important to keep in mind that black voters are most definitely not monolithic, as obviously different black voters have different priorities, etc.

it seems that, between a candidate's policies and platforms and whether or not they can get Trump out of the white house, some people apparently feel the latter is more important.
 
Another view: the reason why Sanders ran such a close race last time and why Trump eventually won by 70k votes accross the Rust Belt wasn't because they wanted a revolution or the most anti-establishment voice, it was because they did not want Hillary Rodham Clinton as president. Simply put. The second a new moderate, establishment candidate stepped forward who had a much higher approval rating and none of her 20-odd years of baggage and character assassination, Biden won, by a pretty convincing margin, atracting hundreds of thousands of voters who had sat out 2016 or had crossed over from the Republican side because of their repulse for Trump.

I know Sanders offers some of the biggest change, and he's far close to an European social-democrat than a "commie" or whatever (says someone who literally voted for the Communist Party of Spain in the last election). But, honestly, look at Biden's programme, and if you think it's "conservative" or anything remotely similar, well, I'm sorry, but we have different views.

I expect he'll kick the orange clown in November pretty hard. Texas-as-a-very-close-battleground kind of hard.
 
Ivysaur said:
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There are people who think Biden is conservative? He's maybe slightly right of centre in some of his economics from what I know, but seems mostly slightly left of centre over all. Anyone in their right mind would take him over Trump. The problem with Biden isn't that he's horrible, aside from the inability to speak coherently, it's that he's going to get the US back to where it was pre-Trump... which was still bad. Better than now, but not nearly as good as what candidates like Bernie or Warren had planned. It's still a dramatic improvement over Trump, but I can very much understand why people are displeased with him.
 
gimmepie said:
There are people who think Biden is conservative? He's maybe slightly right of centre in some of his economics from what I know, but seems mostly slightly left of centre over all. Anyone in their right mind would take him over Trump. The problem with Biden isn't that he's horrible, aside from the inability to speak coherently, it's that he's going to get the US back to where it was pre-Trump... which was still bad.
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The United States is unique for a developed Western nation in that its politics skew VERY conservative, so even "center" in the U.S. would be considered VEEEERY right in developed European nations. In that respect, Biden is indeed conservative.

I lament that young voters did not come out to vote in drastic numbers in the primaries. We really needed an explosive progressive push, but the latest state primary results are showing that the older voters are overwhelmingly delivering the Democratic nomination to Biden, with dismal youth turnout at something like 13-15%. This is so beyond disappointing; less than 2 out of every 10 young eligible voter (and by young, most polls consider that 35 and under lol) actually voted in the primaries.
 
Grand-Donut said:
The United States is unique for a developed Western nation in that its politics skew VERY conservative, so even "center" in the U.S. would be considered VEEEERY right in developed European nations. In that respect, Biden is indeed conservative.

I lament that young voters did not come out to vote in drastic numbers in the primaries. We really needed an explosive progressive push, but the latest state primary results are showing that the older voters are overwhelmingly delivering the Democratic nomination to Biden, with dismal youth turnout at something like 13-15%. This is so beyond disappointing; less than 2 out of every 10 young eligible voter (and by young, most polls consider that 35 and under lol) actually voted in the primaries.
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Speaking as someone who is both extremely liberal and not from the US, Biden is not particularly conservative. He's quite liberal by US standards but is objectively centrist.
 
gimmepie said:
Speaking as someone who is both extremely liberal and not from the US, Biden is not particularly conservative. He's quite liberal by US standards but is objectively centrist.
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Okay, maybe I jumped the gun when I added the modifier "VEEEERY," but he certainly is conservative rather than centrist by non-US standards. Here are some of his policy positions:

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/candidates-views-on-the-issues/joe-biden/

- College, only 2 years should be free, rather than free upper education (technically not free, but paid for by taxes) provided in many European nations

- Health care, build on top of Obamacare, rather than Medicare for All or a public option, that many European nations have

- Marijuana, let states decide, rather than federally decriminalizing it

- Military, will boost spending even further

- Corporate taxes, raise them, but still to levels lower than pre-2017 levels

Not many centrists (if any) in a developed European nation would propose completely privatizing healthcare (which is what Biden will continue to do by not supporting Medicare for all nor providing a public option), among other things. That alone, makes him quite conservative compared to many European nations, despite being centrist in the U.S.
 
Grand-Donut said:
Okay, maybe I jumped the gun when I added the modifier "VEEEERY," but he certainly is conservative rather than centrist by non-US standards. Here are some of his policy positions:

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/candidates-views-on-the-issues/joe-biden/

- College, only 2 years should be free, rather than free upper education (technically not free, but paid for by taxes) provided in many European nations

- Health care, build on top of Obamacare, rather than Medicare for All or a public option, that many European nations have

- Marijuana, let states decide, rather than federally decriminalizing it

- Military, will boost spending even further

- Corporate taxes, raise them, but still to levels lower than pre-2017 levels

Not many centrists (if any) in a developed European nation would propose completely privatizing healthcare (which is what Biden will continue to do by not supporting Medicare for all nor providing a public option), among other things. That alone, makes him quite conservative compared to many European nations, despite being centrist in the U.S.
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You're failing to account for Europe being very far left on average. I wish we could objectively judge by that standard, but the reality is that on the political scale, Biden is slightly left of centre. That's not conservative, it's just more conservative than the ideal that parts of Europe have.
 

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Obama will endorse him shortly. And while that's not the matchup any of us in this thread wanted, that's what we got. The options are Biden or Trump, and I think any person with any level of decency should know that the good thing of voting for the lesser evil is that you get less evil, which matters when human lives (and the future of the Supreme Court) are on the line.

Incidentally, I need to be "that" person and say that if Sanders was defeated by a candidate who arrived into Super Tuesday with no money at all, just because he was endorsed by the 5th and 6th placed candidates in the national polls -the former mayor of Fort Bend, Indiana, and a senator who had finished third in NH- and a failed senate candidate who had dropped out last year after failing to get any traction whatsoever, well, what can I say, other than Sanders's campaign appears to have had the consistency of wet cardboard.

Sanders failed to reassure the 66% of dem voters who liked his ideas but not his style or feared that "socialism" would doom them in the general, or to make nice with the leadership of the Democratic party so that they would not resist him. Because, well, it's hard to win a Democratic primary if you don't at least have the acquiescence -not even support- of the Democratic "establishment"- who, in the end, are millions of regular people who have spend years of their lives supporting a cause they believe in.

What could have happened had Sanders opened ways of communication with the House Leadership so Jim Clyburn hadn't endorsed Biden? Where would we be today had Sanders tried to address the 66% of the democratic base who had doubts about him, moving outside of his core followership and his go-to speeches, so they wouldn't have been willing to consolidate and give its mass support in a matter of hours as soon as anyone else appeared viable?

Finally, I think it's pretty clear there was a fatal misunderstanding of 2016. Sanders didn't sweep the Midwest and West Virginia because he was a socialist but because he was "Not Hillary Clinton". Trump won, not just because he was an outsider who promised to change the system, but because he was "Not Hillary Clinton". This year, Biden is going to run as "Not Donald Trump"- and polls show that's enough to have him lead in pretty much every swing state under the sun, including Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Arizona. He's lapping Clinton in approval, credibility, "cares about people about me"- and beating Trump in every metric you can possibly poll as well. And, most importantly, he's the one expanding the electorate, drawing tens of thousands of former republicans to switch parties and vote for him in the Dem primary.

And, in an election that was won by Trump by 0.07% of the total vote last time, a rounding error, that migth be more than enough to flip it.

[This message was written by a dues-paying member of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party who voted for the Communist Party of Spain in the last election]
 
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Well, let's hope Joe Biden won't stumble over himself in his debates against Trump. He's going to need to be on his A-game; we cannot afford to lose this one. And I do agree, he's the lesser evil, which isn't saying much when you see what he's compared to.
 
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